Question

To the stars! #1: Will the private investment in laser-sail extra-solar travel be matched by a comparable amount within 5 years?

Resolved:No

16 comments16

Total Forecasters170

Community Prediction

35%

(25% - 50%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 35%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

4.7

Community Peer Score

30.9

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Apr 12, 2016

Closes:

Feb 1, 2018

Resolves:

Mar 17, 2022

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 12, 2016

Space

Natural Sciences

Technology

2016-2025 Leaderboard

NASA

Yuri Milner

Breakthrough Initiatives

Before January 1, 2030 will any public or private space company announce plans to reach "Oumuamua"?

2.7%

Will the maximum speed of a human spacecraft reach at least 66,000 km/s (0.22 times the speed of light) by 2075?

17.3%

Five years after AGI, will another spacecraft have overtaken Voyager 1 as the farthest spacecraft from Earth?

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Apr 12, 2016

Closes:

Feb 1, 2018

Resolves:

Mar 17, 2022

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 12, 2016

Space

Natural Sciences

Technology

2016-2025 Leaderboard

NASA

Yuri Milner

Breakthrough Initiatives

Before January 1, 2030 will any public or private space company announce plans to reach "Oumuamua"?

2.7%

Will the maximum speed of a human spacecraft reach at least 66,000 km/s (0.22 times the speed of light) by 2075?

17.3%