Question

Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?

Resolved:Yes

48 comments48

Total Forecasters473

Community Prediction

99%

(98% - 99.9%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

75.9

Community Peer Score

36.4

Authors:

christian

Opened:

Jan 1, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 1, 2024

ACX 2024 Prediction Contest

Politics

2024 Leaderboard

Speaker of the US House of Representatives

2024 United States Senate elections

Mike Johnson (Louisiana politician)

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

45%

Will the Vice President be sworn in as President after January 21, 2025 and before January 14, 2029?

19%

Will the House of Representatives seat a legislator who was not certified as the winner of their election before July 1, 2027?

5.7%