Question

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of U.S. or U.S.-allied AI chips before 2027?

Resolved:Yes

6 comments6

Total Forecasters29

Community Prediction

50%

(22.1% - 75%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 50%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-11.3

Community Peer Score

4.0

Authors:

will_aldred fist

Opened:

Jan 11, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2026

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2027

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 14, 2024

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

99%

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

75%

Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?