Will Tesla be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2027?
Make a Prediction
The question resolves Yes if credible reports indicate Tesla has manufactured at least one thousand humanoid robots of an identical model before January 1, 2028.
Fine Print
A humanoid robot in this context means: -
- A bi-pedal robot with two arms, two legs, a head and torso
- That can perform at least the basic tasks of walking, picking up objects and carrying.
- These will perform tasks autonomously driven by A.I.
- They should not be directly controlled by humans.
From the Humanoid robot Wikipedia page
A humanoid robot is a robot resembling the human body in shape. The design may be for functional purposes, such as interacting with human tools and environments, for experimental purposes, such as the study of bipedal locomotion, or for other purposes. In general, humanoid robots have a torso, a head, two arms, and two legs, though some humanoid robots may replicate only part of the body, for example, from the waist up. Some humanoid robots also have heads designed to replicate human facial features such as eyes and mouths. Androids are humanoid robots built to aesthetically resemble humans.
####Current progress on Optimus
Optimus, also known as Tesla Bot, is a conceptual general-purpose robotic humanoid under development by Tesla, Inc. It was announced at the companies Artificial Intelligence (AI) Day event on August 19, 2021. CEO Elon Musk claimed during the event that Tesla would likely build a prototype by 2022.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk at AI Day 2022 unveiled the companies progress showing Optimus which shuffled across a stage, waved, and pumped its arms in a low-speed dance move. The robot could cost $20,000 within three to five years, Musk said.
Musk said on X in May 2023 that the "Optimus Team is making excellent progress". Tesla then posted a progress update of Optimus in a YouTube video in October 2023 with accompanying text saying it's "now capable of self-calibrating its arms and legs."
The video shows the robot sorting building blocks by colour using its hands, vision, and Tesla's on-board neural net. The clip ends with Optimus doing some yoga stretches.
####For more details on Tesla's progress see:
- https://www.cnet.com/home/smart-home/tesla-reveals-optimus-a-walking-humanoid-robot-you-could-buy-in-2027/
- https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-humanoid-robots-tesla-hiring-workers-2023-11?r=US&IR=T
- https://www.theverge.com/2023/5/16/23726139/tesla-robot-update-video-shareholder-meeting
Will China be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2025?
When will "Tesla Bots" be available to US consumers?
When will a humanoid robot be created that the general public judges as indistinguishable from humans?
Comments
The fact that Musk wasn't willing to call these prototypes autonomous on stage may be one of the biggest signs that some of the robots may have been at least partially controlled by unseen humans.
Are Tesla’s robot prototypes AI marvels or remote-controlled toys?
Tesla said in June that 2 bots have been introduced in Tesla's factories.
I am struggling a bit because I can definitely see how this could be the start of a snowballing effect but it is at least as likely for this to be way too overhyped with the bots actually able to do only one very specific task and not even in a financially viable way...
@exmateriae It's also worth considering that this tweet is from June. It is nearly October now, so I would expect to hear a bit more about this if it was an exponential rollout.
(I'm at 21% right now, though, which makes me an optimist compared to the community. An Optimus-optimist, one could say.)
While Elon Musk has announced plans for internal use of these robots by 2025 and mass production for other companies starting in 2026, Tesla has a history of delays in their product timelines.
Additionally, there may not be a strong demand for these humanoid robots initially, as they are still quite clumsy and not yet refined enough for widespread use.
Easely. In the last earnings call, Elon Musk stated that Tesla was aiming to have 1k or a few thousand (of the the next gen optimus - v3 with 22dof hands) doing useful work in the factory in 2025.
11% here, but 30% in this question. Do people really think that the time between delivering 1 robot and producing 1000 is so great?
@skmmcj Yeah it's strange because Tesla could produce 1k robots to only be used inside Tesla or other companies (like the Tesla Semi). So the resolution could be positive for the production target <2028, but the tesla robot could be generally available >2027
@exmateriae Since they are supposed to be identical for the question to resolve as yes, I don't see a problem with one thousand being called "mass production". If you produce one thousand identical robots, I would say that is only a question of demand and not a technological constraint before you mass produce them in greater quantities. Plainly speaking, I think this question asks whether before 2028 Tesla will develop humanoid robots good enough and useful enough to be able to sell them to customers.
@fallanga I thought therewas a bit of a discrepancy between the title and the criteria but I see your point, if you can do a thousand you should be able to do a million eventually.
@exmateriae It sounds a bit weird, granted. But, let me use an outrageous example, if your company makes fighter jets, mass production would also be counted in thousands, not millions. Or nuclear reactors, powerplants, etc... I don't know if humanoid robots are the same league as those things, though.
Today, the main challenge in producing humanoid robots is the energy/weight ratio of the batteries they incorporate in relation to their displacement capacity. The improvement of battery technology that is currently being experienced led by the automotive market guarantees to overcome the challenge mentioned above, so it is very likely that Tesla will achieve its goal. Moreover, in terms of experience and perseverance, Tesla (Elon Musk) has more than demonstrated its ability to succeed.
@moderators No review of this yet, can you @RyanBeck or @jleibowich please review this ASAP.
@TimeTraveller34 apologies for the delay. Edited and approved. You may also be interested in this related question.
@NMorrison Thank you, very much appreciated, I will certainly look at this.
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