Question

Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly?

Resolved:No

19 comments19

Total Forecasters119

Community Prediction

0.1%

(0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

87.7

Community Peer Score

51.7

Authors:

RyanBeck NathanpmYoung

Opened:

Nov 7, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 8, 2023

Israel-Gaza Conflict

Geopolitics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Chemical Weapons Convention

White phosphorus munitions

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