Question

How many alcohol-impaired driving fatalities will be reported in the US in 2039?

8 comments8

Total Forecasters12

Community Prediction

3266 fatalities

(1622 fatalities - 6063 fatalities)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>20k
community	1622	3266	6063	0.4%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	1622	—
median	3266	—
upper 75%	6063	—
Upper bound
>20k	0.4%	—

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Add key factor

Authors:

DavidHume

Opened:

Nov 11, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2039

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2041

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 14, 2023

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

Self-driving car

Automation

When will at least two US states first disallow human-driven vehicles on public roads?

Jul 2073

What will be the first year when less than 25% of 20 to 24 year olds in the US have a driver's license?

Aug 2048

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

90%