Question

Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?

23 comments23

Total Forecasters188

Community Prediction2%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 2%

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Israel-Gaza Conflict

Geopolitics

Iran

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps

Hamas

Iran–Israel proxy conflict

Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action

United States

2020 Baghdad International Airport airstrike

Uppsala Conflict Data Program

NATO bombing of Yugoslavia

Hezbollah–Israel conflict

Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?

12%

If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, will the US control Tehran within one year?

22%

Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Israel-Gaza Conflict

Geopolitics

Iran

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps

Hamas

Iran–Israel proxy conflict

Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action

United States

2020 Baghdad International Airport airstrike

Uppsala Conflict Data Program

NATO bombing of Yugoslavia

Hezbollah–Israel conflict

Can Iran restore deterrence against Israel while avoiding an all-out war?

Al Jazeera•Sep 18, 2024

AS`AD AbuKHALIL: Iran’s Crucial Decision on Israel

Consortium News•Sep 18, 2024

Will the exploding pager attack be the spark that ignites an Israel-Hezbollah war?

The Conversation•Sep 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?

12%

If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, will the US control Tehran within one year?

22%