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How many nuclear weapon states will there be in 2030?

Forecast Timeline

12+

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Candidates		My Prediction		Me
9	57.6%

10	35%

11	10%

12+	2%

8	2%

7	1%

0-6	1%

Authors:

NathanpmYoung

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

Federation of American Scientists

Taiwan

United States

Will there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?

72%

Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?

50%

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?

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Authors:

NathanpmYoung

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

Federation of American Scientists

Taiwan

United States

Key takeaways from AP’s examination of South Korea’s split views on North Korea’s nuclear threats

Associated Press•Sep 12, 2024

North Korea releases rare glimpse of Kim Jong Un touring secret nuclear weapons facility

USA Today•Sep 13, 2024

Kim Jong Un Wants More Nukes - What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

Red State•Sep 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?

72%

Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?

50%