Question

Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel?

Resolved :No

4 comments4

Total Forecasters82

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

54.5

Community Peer Score

15.1

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Israel-Gaza Conflict

Geopolitics

Iran

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps

Hezbollah–Israel conflict

Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?

Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?

Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?

12%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Israel-Gaza Conflict

Geopolitics

Iran

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps

Hezbollah–Israel conflict

Can Iran restore deterrence against Israel while avoiding an all-out war?

Al Jazeera•Sep 18, 2024

U.S. Reacts to Exploding Pager Attacks Blamed On Mossad

Newsweek•Sep 18, 2024

'They're Practically Recognizing Hamas': Leader Says Biden Will Let Terrorist Group Stay in Power

Red State•Sep 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?

Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?

Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?

12%