10% agricul. drop leading to >400M fatalities

conditional

condition

US Hyperinflation Before 2050

9 forecasters

if yes

if no

10% agricul. drop leading to >400M fatalities

17%

10% agricul. drop leading to >400M fatalities

11%

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US Hyperinflation Before 2050	10% agricul. drop leading to >400M fatalities
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 16.7%

Forecast Timeline

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if No

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Authors:

txmerritt

Opened:

Nov 18, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2034

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Bureau of Labor Statistics

UNICEF

If there's a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2030, will this cause >400 million fatalities?

34.7%

Will annual US inflation reach 100% in any year before 2050?

Will an epidemic or agroterrorist attack on US agriculture cause at least $20 billion (2021 USD) in damage by 2040?

31.2%

Authors:

txmerritt

Opened:

Nov 18, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2034

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Bureau of Labor Statistics

UNICEF

If there's a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2030, will this cause >400 million fatalities?

34.7%

Will annual US inflation reach 100% in any year before 2050?

Will an epidemic or agroterrorist attack on US agriculture cause at least $20 billion (2021 USD) in damage by 2040?

31.2%