Question

Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?

Resolved :No

18 comments18

Total Forecasters214

Community Prediction12%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 12%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

86.2

Community Peer Score

30.2

median 12.0%mean 20.1%

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Natural Sciences

Nagasaki

Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Cuban Missile Crisis

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

80%

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Natural Sciences

Nagasaki

Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Cuban Missile Crisis

North Korea offers rare glimpse into secretive facility used for uranium — as Kim Jong Un calls for ‘exponentially’ more nukes

New York Post•Sep 13, 2024

North Korea releases rare glimpse of Kim Jong Un touring secret nuclear weapons facility

USA Today•Sep 13, 2024

Inside Kim Jong Un's nuclear weapon factory: First-ever images of North Korea's uranium enrichment plant revealed as dictator visits military facilities and urges increase in tactical nuke production

Daily Mail•Sep 13, 2024

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Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

80%