Second US Civil War Before 2031

conditional

condition

NPVIC Reaches Threshold Before 2030?

18 forecasters

if yes

if no

Second US Civil War Before 2031

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NPVIC Reaches Threshold Before 2030?	Second US Civil War Before 2031
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if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 3%

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Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Jan 19, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2031

2020 US presidential election

Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?

Will at least one US state secede from the Union before 31 December, 2030?

Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030?

15%