Question
How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025?
Total Forecasters29
Community Prediction
5.35 labs
(3.91 labs - 7.25 labs)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 3.912 | — |
| median | 5.346 | — |
| upper 75% | 7.249 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >25 | 6.7% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:May 17, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:May 19, 2023
Authors:
Opened:May 17, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:May 19, 2023