Question

Will there be another terrorist attack causing more than 25 deaths in the United States before 2020?

Resolved :No

12 comments12

Total Forecasters61

Community Prediction25%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 25%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

51.6

Community Peer Score

3.6

median 25.0%mean 26.6%

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Geopolitics

Abu Waheeb

September 11 attacks

Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant

United States

Orlando nightclub shooting

Omar Mateen

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi

Will another 9/11 on U.S. soil be prevented at least through 2030?

78%

Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?

20%

By 2030, will at least 10,000 Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?

15%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Geopolitics

Abu Waheeb

September 11 attacks

Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant

United States

Orlando nightclub shooting

Omar Mateen

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi

More Than Two Decades After 9/11, Government Lets Terrorists Cross Border

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FOX News•Sep 12, 2024

Certification of Election Will Get Extra Security to Try to Prevent Another Capitol Attack

New York Times•Sep 12, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will another 9/11 on U.S. soil be prevented at least through 2030?

78%

Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?

20%

By 2030, will at least 10,000 Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?

15%