Question

What will be the greatest velocity (in c) attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?

20 comments20

Total Forecasters72

Community Prediction2.56e-3

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lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

1.024e-3

2.561e-3

1.435e-2

2.2%

Authors:

Jgalt

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Scheduled resolution:

Will the maximum speed of a human spacecraft reach at least 66,000 km/s (0.22 times the speed of light) by 2075?

10%

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?

9.1e-2

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?

193

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Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

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Will the maximum speed of a human spacecraft reach at least 66,000 km/s (0.22 times the speed of light) by 2075?

10%

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?

9.1e-2

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?

193