Question

Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?

Resolved :No

27 comments27

Total Forecasters134

Community Prediction0%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

96.0

Community Peer Score

5.5

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Politics

George Floyd

1992 Los Angeles riots

United States

Donald Trump

New York (state)

Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024?

10%

Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in America before 2031?

61%

If Donald Trump is incarcerated or put under house arrest for over 30 days before 2030, what date will his confinement begin?

2025-12-15

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Politics

George Floyd

1992 Los Angeles riots

United States

Donald Trump

New York (state)

Secret Service to ramp up security on Jan. 6, 2025, to avoid another riot at the Capitol

FOX News•Sep 12, 2024

Biden admin aims to prevent Capitol riot repeat with Super Bowl levels of security for Congress on Jan 6, 2025

Independent•Sep 12, 2024

Trump’s D.C. trial may not begin until 2026 or later, legal experts say

Washington Post•Sep 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024?

10%

Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in America before 2031?

61%

If Donald Trump is incarcerated or put under house arrest for over 30 days before 2030, what date will his confinement begin?

2025-12-15