Group

Conditional on the number of public charging stations, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Forecast Timeline

> 185k

≤ 185k

Make a Prediction

	25th	median	75th
> 185k	39.4 ...	49.4 ...	62.1 ...
≤ 185k	31.9 ...	41.1 ...	53.6 ...

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

39.44

49.42

62.08

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Climate Tipping Points

Climate Tipping Points Round 2

Environment & Climate

Economy & Business

Light commercial vehicle

Zero-emissions vehicle

United States

Conditional on gas prices, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

46.1

Conditional on the number of states adopting ZEV mandates, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

49.4

Conditional on EV median range, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

37.3

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Climate Tipping Points

Climate Tipping Points Round 2

Environment & Climate

Economy & Business

Light commercial vehicle

Zero-emissions vehicle

United States

Which car brands have electric car sales on target and which are falling behind as end of year ZEV fines loom?

Daily Mail•Sep 12, 2024

Profiles in clean energy: She founded a business to keep EV charging stations up and running

Associated Press•Sep 17, 2024

European Automakers Want CO2 Rules Eased To Avoid Punishing Fines

Forbes•Sep 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Conditional on gas prices, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

46.1

Conditional on the number of states adopting ZEV mandates, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

49.4

Conditional on EV median range, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

37.3