Question
When will a Chinese entity develop a model surpassing GPT-4's few-shot performance on MMLU?
Total Forecasters63
Community Prediction
20 Feb 2025
(20 Oct 2024 - 11 Aug 2025)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 20 Oct 2024 | — |
| median | 20 Feb 2025 | — |
| upper 75% | 11 Aug 2025 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >13 Jun 2029 | 1.2% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Mar 18, 2023
Closes:Jun 15, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Jun 15, 2029
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 20, 2023
Authors:
Opened:Mar 18, 2023
Closes:Jun 15, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Jun 15, 2029
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 20, 2023