Question

What credence will the US government assign to existential risk from AI in the next 30 years before 2025?

9 comments9

Total Forecasters19

Community Prediction8.28e-3

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

<1e-5

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

1.3%

1.513e-3

8.283e-3

3.327e-2

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Computer science

United States

Artificial intelligence

Will global-catastrophic-risk-focused evaluation of certain AI systems by accredited bodies become mandatory in the US before 2035?

60%

Will a U.S. President’s State of the Union address mention the issue of AI existential risk before the listed year?

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?

83%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Computer science

United States

Artificial intelligence

OpenAI o1 Model Warning Issued by Scientist: 'Particularly Dangerous'

Newsweek•Sep 13, 2024

A.I. Pioneers Call for Protections Against ‘Catastrophic Risks’

New York Times•Sep 16, 2024

Regulating AI Is Easier Than You Think

Time•Sep 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will global-catastrophic-risk-focused evaluation of certain AI systems by accredited bodies become mandatory in the US before 2035?

60%

Will a U.S. President’s State of the Union address mention the issue of AI existential risk before the listed year?

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?

83%