More HIV/AIDS in 2037 than 2017?

conditional

condition

HIV Vaccine Approved Before 2032?

if yes

if no

More HIV/AIDS in 2037 than 2017?

13%

More HIV/AIDS in 2037 than 2017?

46%

1 comment1

Make a Prediction

HIV Vaccine Approved Before 2032?	More HIV/AIDS in 2037 than 2017?
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 13%

Forecast Timeline

Yes

Authors:

PhilippSchoenegger

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Health & Pandemics

AIDS in Africa

Eastern and Southern African Management Institute

Before 2032, will a vaccine against HIV-1 be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?

75%

Will there be more people with HIV/AIDS in 2037 than in 2017?

33%

Allogeneic cell therapy FDA approved by 2035? → Will cancer mortality ↓ by 50% by 2051?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

PhilippSchoenegger

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Health & Pandemics

AIDS in Africa

Eastern and Southern African Management Institute

Twice-a-year injection reduced risk of HIV infection by 96%, drug company says — more than daily PrEP pill

CNN•Sep 12, 2024

An injectable HIV-prevention drug is highly effective — but wildly expensive

NBC•Sep 12, 2024

Gilead says its twice-yearly shot cut HIV infections by 96% in trial

CNBC•Sep 12, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 2032, will a vaccine against HIV-1 be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?

75%

Will there be more people with HIV/AIDS in 2037 than in 2017?

33%