Question

Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?

63 comments63

Total Forecasters240

Community Prediction12%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 12%

Authors:

NMorrison RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Israel-Gaza Conflict

Geopolitics

Iran

Hezbollah–Israel conflict

Iranian Revolution

Syrian civil war

Iran–Israel proxy conflict

Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action

Israel

Will state-based conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

30%

Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?

Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025?

87%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

NMorrison RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Israel-Gaza Conflict

Geopolitics

Iran

Hezbollah–Israel conflict

Iranian Revolution

Syrian civil war

Iran–Israel proxy conflict

Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action

Israel

Can Iran restore deterrence against Israel while avoiding an all-out war?

Al Jazeera•Sep 18, 2024

Will the exploding pager attack be the spark that ignites an Israel-Hezbollah war?

The Conversation•Sep 18, 2024

Can anything stop an all-out war between Hezbollah and Israel?

MSNBC•Sep 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will state-based conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

30%

Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?

Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025?

87%