Question
What will be the first year when less than 25% of 20 to 24 year olds in the US have a driver's license?
Total Forecasters34
Community Prediction
Aug 2048
(May 2035 - Jun 2069)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | May 2035 | — |
| median | Aug 2048 | — |
| upper 75% | Jun 2069 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2079 | 17.8% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Dec 25, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2080
Scheduled resolution:Jun 1, 2082
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 27, 2022
Authors:
Opened:Dec 25, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2080
Scheduled resolution:Jun 1, 2082
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 27, 2022