Question

In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?

Resolved:No

6 comments6

Total Forecasters223

Community Prediction

0.1%

(0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

97.2

Community Peer Score

7.8

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Dec 22, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 12, 2023

ACX 2023 Prediction Contest

Geopolitics

2022-2023 Leaderboard

If China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2035, will they successfully control Taiwan within three years?

66%

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Will China launch a military invasion of any country other than Taiwan before 2030?