Question

Drake's Equation 7th parameter L: For how many years does a civilization remain detectable?

23 comments23

Total Forecasters161

Community Prediction29.2k

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

<10

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>10B

...

6.9%

521.4

29.19k

25.1M

15.5%

Authors:

googolplexbyte

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Discussion page for the Fermi Paradox question series

Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication?

1.65e-1

Drake's Equation 4th parameter f_l: On what fraction of habitable planets does any form of life emerge?

4.74e-4

Comments

? comments

Authors:

googolplexbyte

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Understanding the Origins of Life on Earth Could Help Find Life beyond It

Scientific American•Sep 17, 2024

Cosmology is at a tipping point – we may be on the verge of discovering new physics

Raw Story•Sep 18, 2024

Droughts May Last Up to 10 Days Longer Than Predicted by 2100

Newsweek•Sep 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Discussion page for the Fermi Paradox question series

Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication?

1.65e-1

Drake's Equation 4th parameter f_l: On what fraction of habitable planets does any form of life emerge?

4.74e-4