Question

Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?

Resolved :No

291 comments291

Total Forecasters735

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

95.8

Community Peer Score

10.6

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances

Ukraine–NATO relations

Annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation

Donetsk Republic

Luhansk People's Republic

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances

Ukraine–NATO relations

Annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation

Donetsk Republic

Luhansk People's Republic

Russia 'must show it is willing to use nuclear weapons against countries that support Ukraine and CAN hit NATO countries with a tactical nuke without sparking Armageddon'

Daily Mail•Sep 13, 2024

Putin is threatening disaster over Ukraine's long-range missiles — but his past 'red lines' came to nothing

Business Insider•Sep 13, 2024

The U.S. Is Playing Nuclear Chicken in Ukraine

American Conservative•Sep 17, 2024

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