Question

Will any current provincial level administrative divisions of China formally declare independence from China before 2050?

2 comments2

Total Forecasters36

Community Prediction35%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 34.5%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Republic of China Armed Forces

United Nations

People's Liberation Army

Taiwan

Political status of Taiwan

Provinces of China

Will Taiwan/Republic of China declare independence by 2035?

20%

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

32%

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

10%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Republic of China Armed Forces

United Nations

People's Liberation Army

Taiwan

Political status of Taiwan

Provinces of China

China Raises Retirement Age for the First Time Since the 1950s

New York Times•Sep 13, 2024

Chinese Public Reacts After Beijing Raises Retirement Age

Newsweek•Sep 16, 2024

Chinese TV Shows How Taiwan Invasion Would Look

Newsweek•Sep 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Taiwan/Republic of China declare independence by 2035?

20%

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

32%

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

10%