Question

Before 2023, will the US CDC recommend the general use of the monkeypox vaccine for all men who have sex with men in the US?

Resolved :No

9 comments9

Total Forecasters49

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

31.7

Community Peer Score

7.3

Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Infectious disease

Monkeypox

Central Africa

Food and Drug Administration

Blood donation restrictions on men who have sex with men

North America

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

21%

If at least 100 human cases of Clade I mpox are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

1.03

What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Infectious disease

Monkeypox

Central Africa

Food and Drug Administration

Blood donation restrictions on men who have sex with men

North America

One dose of a smallpox vaccine still gives good protection for mpox

New Scientist•Sep 12, 2024

CDC says mpox vaccine boosters aren’t needed in the US as questions emerge around waning immunity

CNN•Sep 13, 2024

Mpox Vaccine Update Issued by WHO

Newsweek•Sep 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

21%

If at least 100 human cases of Clade I mpox are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

1.03