Question
When will an ML model achieve 90% of human-crowd performance on Autocast?
Total Forecasters31
Community Prediction
04 Sep 2026
(29 Nov 2024 - 17 Dec 2028)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 29 Nov 2024 | — |
| median | 04 Sep 2026 | — |
| upper 75% | 17 Dec 2028 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >Jun 2032 | 7.0% | — |
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Opened:Jul 1, 2022
Closes:Feb 1, 2032
Scheduled resolution:Feb 2, 2032
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 1, 2022
Authors:
Opened:Jul 1, 2022
Closes:Feb 1, 2032
Scheduled resolution:Feb 2, 2032
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 1, 2022