Question

If there is a new pandemic before 2032, how long (in days) will it be from the first US laboratory-confirmed case until the first FDA-approved treatment?

no comments0

Total Forecasters69

Community Prediction225

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>730

...

172.8

224.7

284.4

0.9%

Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Biosecurity Tournament

2019–20 coronavirus pandemic

Food and Drug Administration

If there is a new pandemic before 2032, how long (in days) will it be from the first US laboratory-confirmed case until the first FDA-approved vaccine?

273

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2035?

58.3

Comments

? comments

Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Biosecurity Tournament

2019–20 coronavirus pandemic

Food and Drug Administration

FDA Using 'Emergency' Excuse To Dodge Covid Vax Accountability

Federalist•Sep 12, 2024

The US is entering a riskier season for spread of H5N1 bird flu. Here’s why experts are worried

CNN•Sep 13, 2024

Gilead’s HIV Shot Reduced Infections By 96% In Late-Stage Trial—Beating Daily Pill

Forbes•Sep 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there is a new pandemic before 2032, how long (in days) will it be from the first US laboratory-confirmed case until the first FDA-approved vaccine?

273

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2035?

58.3