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Depending on a CDC authorization of a pan-betacoronavirus vaccine, how many US deaths will be attributed to betacoronaviruses between 2028 and 2030 (inclusive)?

Forecast Timeline

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Authorized

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	25th	median	75th
Not Authorized	41k ...	119k ...	315k ...
Authorized	25.8k ...	63.5k ...	144k ...

My Prediction

community

<1k

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>10M

...

1.3%

41.01k

119k

315.4k

1.1%

Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Biosecurity Tournament

Health & Pandemics

Natural Sciences

1889–1890 flu pandemic

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus

Public health

COVID-19

Pulmonology

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Epidemiology

Coronaviridae

Infectious disease

Human coronavirus OC43

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Before 2032, will these pan-coronavirus vaccine candidates be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Biosecurity Tournament

Health & Pandemics

Natural Sciences

1889–1890 flu pandemic

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus

Public health

COVID-19

Pulmonology

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Epidemiology

Coronaviridae

Infectious disease

Human coronavirus OC43

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