Question

If China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2035, will they successfully control Taiwan within three years?

104 comments104

Total Forecasters223

Community Prediction66%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 66%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Chinese Armed Forces

People's Liberation Army

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?

65%

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the United Kingdom respond with military forces?

18%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Chinese Armed Forces

People's Liberation Army

A Navy SEAL unit that killed Osama bin Laden is busy preparing for a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan: report

Business Insider•Sep 12, 2024

SEAL Team Six training for possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan: report

New York Post•Sep 13, 2024

Chinese TV Shows How Taiwan Invasion Would Look

Newsweek•Sep 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?

65%

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the United Kingdom respond with military forces?

18%