Question

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

36 comments36

Total Forecasters280

Community Prediction4%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 4%

Authors:

Wombat

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Biosecurity Tournament

World Health Organization

What will be the maximum global single-year death toll attributable to a single pandemic between 2022 to 2121?

38.2M

How many reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025?

152k

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Wombat

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Biosecurity Tournament

World Health Organization

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Antibiotic resistance forecast to kill 39 million people by 2050

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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the maximum global single-year death toll attributable to a single pandemic between 2022 to 2121?

38.2M

How many reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025?

152k