Question

Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?

22 comments22

Total Forecasters56

Community Prediction

75%

(66% - 90%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 75%

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Authors:

Wombat

Opened:

Jun 3, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2035

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2035

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 5, 2022

AI Safety

Artificial Intelligence

Technology

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Future of Life Institute

University of California, Berkeley

Max Tegmark

Will the United States sign a Treaty on the Prohibition of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems before 2031?

11%

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

75%

Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?

20%

Authors:

Wombat

Opened:

Jun 3, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2035

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2035

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 5, 2022

AI Safety

Artificial Intelligence

Technology

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Future of Life Institute

University of California, Berkeley

Max Tegmark

Will the United States sign a Treaty on the Prohibition of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems before 2031?

11%

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

75%

Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?

20%