Question

Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?

Resolved :No

446

1k comments1k

Total Forecasters2185

Community Prediction15%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 15%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

20.6

Community Peer Score

31.4

median 15.0%mean 21.5%

Authors:

shiranpasternak

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Future Perfect 2020 Series

Elections

Politics

2020 US presidential election

Mike Pence

Donald Trump

If the 2024 US Presidential Election is Trump vs. Biden, will Trump win?

85%

On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election?

Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

shiranpasternak

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Future Perfect 2020 Series

Elections

Politics

2020 US presidential election

Mike Pence

Donald Trump

How Donald Trump's Chances Compare to Past Elections at 50 Day Mark

Newsweek•Sep 17, 2024

'It's a near guarantee': Experts warn Trump will claim victory no matter what voters say

Raw Story•Sep 17, 2024

Why We Might Not Know the Winner on Election Night

Time•Sep 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If the 2024 US Presidential Election is Trump vs. Biden, will Trump win?

85%

On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election?

Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks?