Question

How many years after 2018 will the last human being be born?

34 comments34

Total Forecasters125

Community Prediction24.6k

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My Prediction

community

<500

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>1M

...

28.0%

500

24.61k

28.5%

Authors:

AdamK

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Artificial intelligence

Computer science

Anthropology

If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?

2049-12-27

How many biological humans will be alive on December 31, 2300, conditional on there being more than 500 Million?

10.9B

When will the first biological human to live to the age of 1000 be born?

2298-03-29

Comments

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Authors:

AdamK

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Artificial intelligence

Computer science

Anthropology

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If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?

2049-12-27

How many biological humans will be alive on December 31, 2300, conditional on there being more than 500 Million?

10.9B

When will the first biological human to live to the age of 1000 be born?

2298-03-29