Question
When will a human cure for herpes simplex for oral region be available for purchase?
Total Forecasters8
Community Prediction
Nov 2032
(21 Jul 2029 - Nov 2036)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 21 Jul 2029 | — |
| median | Nov 2032 | — |
| upper 75% | Nov 2036 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >Dec 2049 | 3.7% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Apr 4, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2050
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 6, 2022
When will an HSV-1 vaccine be approved by the FDA?
Dec 2032
Will there be broad scientific consensus that herpes viruses are implicated in the pathogenesis of dementia, before 2040?
55%
In what year will an HIV vaccine demonstrating at least 50% efficacy in Phase III clinical trials receive regulatory approval (e.g., from the FDA or EMA) for widespread use?
Jan 2035
Authors:
Opened:Apr 4, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2050
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 6, 2022
When will an HSV-1 vaccine be approved by the FDA?
Dec 2032
Will there be broad scientific consensus that herpes viruses are implicated in the pathogenesis of dementia, before 2040?
55%
In what year will an HIV vaccine demonstrating at least 50% efficacy in Phase III clinical trials receive regulatory approval (e.g., from the FDA or EMA) for widespread use?
Jan 2035