Question

What percent of ransomware victims whose data was encrypted will report paying a ransom in 2022?

Resolved:46

6 comments6

Total Forecasters49

Community Prediction

27.6

(21.5 - 33.2)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>55
community	21.45	27.63	33.18	1.1%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	21.45	—
median	27.63	—
upper 75%	33.18	—
Upper bound
>55	1.1%	—

What was the final result?46

Community Baseline Score

-16.1

Community Peer Score

8.5

Authors:

AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Mar 8, 2022

Closes:

Oct 1, 2022

Resolves:

Oct 1, 2022

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 29, 2022

What share of all payments (in percent) in the United States will be transacted and settled in real-time in 2028?

4.83

Will cryptocurrencies account for at least 1% of U.S. retail payments before January 1, 2035?

90%

What will the 2025 reconciliation bill set as the excise tax rate on remittances in tax year 2026?

Authors:

AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Mar 8, 2022

Closes:

Oct 1, 2022

Resolves:

Oct 1, 2022

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 29, 2022

What share of all payments (in percent) in the United States will be transacted and settled in real-time in 2028?

4.83

Will cryptocurrencies account for at least 1% of U.S. retail payments before January 1, 2035?

90%