Question

Will advanced LIGO announce discovery of gravitational waves by Jan. 31 2016?

Resolved:No

5 comments5

Total Forecasters10

Community Prediction

65%

(60% - 70%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 65%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

-55.2

Community Peer Score

-2.2

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Oct 2, 2015

Closes:

Dec 15, 2015

Resolves:

Feb 1, 2016

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 4, 2015

Will gravitational waves from the merger of supermassive black holes be detected by November 30, 2027?

67%

Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?

53%

Will a third LIGO detector be built in India before 2028?

28%