🤖 MWG

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2024

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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11.93		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
91.736	97.1%	Will "Rockstar" by Lisa win the award for Best K-Pop at the 2024 MTV VMAs?	Binary
76.173	74.9%	Will the Warren Buffett Indicator exceed 200% before September 17, 2024?	Binary
67.913	92.9%	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4.1% in August 2024?	Binary
60.906	96.3%	Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on October 1, 2024?	Binary
59.909	96.3%	Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024?	Binary
57.490	96.0%	Will Russia control Pokrovsk Before October 1, 2024?	Binary
52.882	97.0%	Will the Boeing Starliner Commercial Crew program be canceled before October 1, 2024?	Binary
51.916	96.7%	Will Super Micro Computer, Inc., file its 10-K annual report with the SEC before October 1, 2024?	Binary
51.643	92.9%	Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event?	Binary
51.170	89.0%	Will there be a US presidential debate held on September 10, 2024?	Binary
49.952	97.5%	Will Baby Reindeer win the 2024 Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series?	Binary
48.615	98.0%	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before September 30, 2024?	Binary
46.461	61.2%	Will Tim Walz cease to be Kamala Harriss's running mate before October 1, 2024?	Binary
43.802	99.7%	Will the USDA's recall of Boar's Head deli meat be closed before October 1, 2024?	Binary
43.642	97.1%	Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 16.0 and less than or equal to 17.0 for August 2024?	Binary
38.808	97.7%	Will the yield curve be inverted on Friday September 27, 2024?	Binary
38.291	96.5%	Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before October 1, 2024, according to the Institute for the Study of War?	Binary
37.733	98.0%	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.30 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
35.555	86.2%	Will the CDC's assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public exceed "Very Low" before October 1, 2024?	Binary
34.796	92.5%	Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
34.277	98.6%	Will Donald Trump sell any shares of Trump Media before October 1, 2024, as revealed by a Form 4 filing?	Binary
33.298	98.1%	Will exactly 1 major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?	Binary
32.452	98.9%	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.40 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
31.410	88.5%	Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024?	Binary
31.345	96.4%	Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 18.0 for August 2024?	Binary
29.342	80.0%	Will Pavel Durov leave France before October 1, 2024?	Binary
28.972	99.1%	Will Plug Power file for bankruptcy before October 1, 2024?	Binary
28.691	92.0%	Will AfD's vote share be more than 30% and less than or equal to 32% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Binary
27.834	99.4%	Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024?	Binary
27.343	52.8%	On September 17, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?	Binary
26.684	99.3%	Will 4 or more major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?	Binary
25.759	99.6%	Will a Llama model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
25.561	84.6%	Will Greg Brockman return to OpenAI following his leave of absence before October 1, 2024?	Binary
25.074	93.2%	Will the US see a large-scale riot between July 17, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
24.655	98.5%	Will a Claude model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
24.604	94.5%	Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast?	Binary
24.113	91.7%	Will the 500th richest person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index have $6 billion or more on Monday September 16, 2024?	Binary
24.020	98.2%	Will OpenAI announce GPT-5 before September 30, 2024?	Binary
23.835	95.4%	Will Alexandre de Moraes cease to be a minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil before October 1, 2024?	Binary
22.612	98.3%	Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before September 30, 2024?	Binary
22.301	52.1%	On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory not include Kursk Oblast, but include at least 1 other oblast?	Binary
21.028	99.0%	Will a Grok model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
20.913	95.4%	Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024?	Binary
20.105	45.6%	Will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be less than 40 on September 18, 2024?	Binary
19.530	52.4%	Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024?	Binary
19.274	98.6%	Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024?	Binary
19.213	61.3%	Before Sept 30, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu?	Binary
18.370	79.6%	Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024?	Binary
18.343	45.2%	Will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be less than 60 on September 18, 2024?	Binary
18.331	84.0%	Will Zambia confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
17.383	89.2%	Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
17.270	45.5%	Will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be less than 50 on September 18, 2024?	Binary
17.011	75.2%	On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 400 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?	Binary
16.048	45.5%	Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024?	Binary
15.951	88.9%	Will Rivian make any posts at its Stories site before October 1, 2024?	Binary
15.224	99.3%	Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024?	Binary
15.053	90.1%	Will the median person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index be from the United States on September 16, 2024?	Binary
14.986	88.8%	Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024?	Binary
14.845	75.1%	On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 300 and less than or equal to 400 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?	Binary
14.743	97.4%	Will China's youth unemployment rate be less than or equal to 16.0 for August 2024?	Binary
14.618	31.2%	Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
14.103	52.6%	Will Bo Nix be the starting quarterback for the Denver Broncos in their Week 4 game against the New York Jets?	Binary
13.871	84.7%	Will the US confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
13.374	92.9%	Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?	Binary
13.077	97.2%	Will a ChatGPT model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
12.045	74.7%	Will the US see a large-scale riot between July 17, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
11.655	46.4%	Will the Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for mpox (monkeypox) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
11.378	97.5%	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Amazon?	Binary
11.313	85.1%	Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?	Binary
10.912	96.8%	Will Boeing's aircraft assembly factory workers continuously be on strike, according to the AP's Strikes Hub, through September 30, 2024?	Binary
10.862	85.8%	Will the closing value of Tesla's shares be at least $230 on September 30, 2024?	Binary
10.284	88.4%	Will Jensen Huang be in the top 10 of the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on September 30, 2024?	Binary
9.962	88.8%	Will a swimmer win the most gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
9.305	97.7%	Will the New York Yankees win more games than the Baltimore Orioles in the 2024 MLB season, before October 1, 2024?	Binary
9.232	98.1%	Will a Gemini model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
9.094	89.3%	Will the New York Yankees win more games than the Cleveland Guardians in the 2024 MLB season, before October 1, 2024?	Binary
9.078	97.1%	Will Taylor Swift win 4 or more awards at the 2024 MTV Video Music Awards?	Binary
8.903	22.5%	Will the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on Sept 30, 2024, exceed 200 herds?	Binary
8.759	99.0%	Will AfD's vote share be more than 32% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Binary
8.744	51.8%	On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine have no offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory?	Binary
8.385	11.8%	Will Donald Trump have more than 15 million TikTok followers on Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
8.217	10.3%	Will Apple announce an iPhone with stacked battery technology before October 1, 2024?	Binary
8.022	75.2%	On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 300 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?	Binary
7.989	57.9%	Will the decision to reallocate the bronze medal in the women's floor exercise at the 2024 Paris Olympics from the US to Romania be overturned before October 1, 2024?	Binary
7.838	53.0%	Will at least 200 Benin Bronzes go from the British Museum to Nigeria before October 1, 2024?	Binary
7.731	57.8%	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to be the acting Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau before October 1, 2024?	Binary
7.193	85.7%	Will the CDC's assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public exceed "High" before October 1, 2024?	Binary
7.167	6.0%	Will the Spanish Wikipedia first exceed 2 million articles before October 1, 2024?	Binary
7.031	61.2%	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on September 30, 2024, according to Forbes?	Binary
6.652	61.2%	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Microsoft?	Binary
6.435	10.4%	Will the median net worth on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index be above $10.2 billion on September 16, 2024?	Binary
6.266	88.7%	On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 200 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?	Binary
6.160	52.2%	On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory include Kursk Oblast and at least 1 other oblast?	Binary
6.064	22.3%	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before Sept 15, 2024?	Binary
6.042	98.0%	Will Taylor Swift win 5 or more awards at the 2024 MTV Video Music Awards?	Binary
6.016	9.3%	Will the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) exceed 316.000 for August 2024, according to FRED?	Binary
5.968	89.9%	Will "Dilemma" by Green Day win the award for Best Rock at the 2024 MTV VMAs?	Binary
5.960	99.4%	Will Kennedy Iyere win the September 21, 2024 Edo state gubernatorial election in Nigeria?	Binary
5.938	5.8%	Will the Spanish Wikipedia first exceed 2 million articles before Seotember 15, 2024?	Binary
5.935	98.9%	Will Greystone Logistics, Inc., file its 10-K annual report with the SEC before October 1, 2024?	Binary
5.878	12.9%	Will the Prime Minister of France on August 31, 2024 belong to the New Popular Front but not LFI?	Binary
5.638	90.3%	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Meta, Facebook or Instagram?	Binary
5.225	57.9%	Will Claude 3.5 Opus be released before October 1, 2024?	Binary
5.112	53.6%	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
5.068	12.4%	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?	Binary
4.876	11.9%	Before October 1, 2024, will Stripe announce on the news section of its website that it is planning an IPO?	Binary
4.597	63.4%	Will Hans Niemann win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Binary
4.447	6.9%	Will more than 50 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
4.446	29.3%	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?	Binary
4.386	8.2%	Will the US weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate be above 6.35% on October 1, 2024, according to Freddie Mac?	Binary
4.292	54.0%	Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?	Binary
4.148	12.9%	Will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be more than $1.5 trillion on September 29, 2024?	Binary
4.005	95.5%	Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal?	Binary
3.975	51.7%	Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
3.929	8.9%	Before Sept 30, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Yoav Gallant?	Binary
3.850	7.7%	Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?	Binary
3.812	88.6%	On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 300 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?	Binary
3.755	6.6%	Will the national price of gasoline exceed $3.25 per gallon when accessed by Metaculus Admins on October 1, 2024?	Binary
3.742	11.2%	Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?	Binary
3.668	12.4%	Will the median person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index come from the Energy industry on September 16, 2024?	Binary
3.576	7.9%	Will the USA win more Gold than Silver medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?	Binary
3.439	88.2%	Will "Feelslikeimfallinginlove" by Coldplay win the award for Best Rock at the 2024 MTV VMAs?	Binary
3.417	8.8%	Will Big Lots file for bankruptcy before September 30, 2024?	Binary
3.305	6.3%	Will more than 60 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
3.131	9.0%	Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024?	Binary
2.974	8.0%	Will astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore be on Earth on August 15?	Binary
2.970	5.6%	Will the Spanish Wikipedia first exceed 2 million articles betweeen September 15, 2024 and October 1, 2024?	Binary
2.937	7.2%	Will Donald Trump's net favorability rating be higher than -8 as reported by 538 on September 1, 2024?	Binary
2.927	6.7%	Will Sheikh Hasina get asylum in the United Kingdom before October 1, 2024?	Binary
2.887	53.8%	Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?	Binary
2.853	13.0%	Will the Prime Minister of France on August 31, 2024 belong to the France Unbowed (LFI) party?	Binary
2.772	7.0%	Will the minimum wage in Türkiye (Turkey) increase again before September 30, 2024?	Binary
2.758	12.5%	At the 2024 Olympics, will at least 5 countries win their debut gold medal?	Binary
2.751	21.9%	Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
2.684	52.3%	On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory include Kursk Oblast and no other oblasts?	Binary
2.601	93.0%	Will the same nation win more than one women's team sport at the 2024 Olympics?	Binary
2.589	21.4%	Will the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on Sept 30, 2024, be between 200 and 300 herds?	Binary
2.573	9.9%	Before October 1, 2024, will OpenAI announce on the news section of its website that it is planning an IPO?	Binary
2.545	13.3%	Will Apple announce a portless iPhone before October 1, 2024?	Binary
2.504	12.6%	Will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be more than $1.5 trillion and less than or equal to $2 trillion on September 29, 2024?	Binary
2.463	11.8%	Will Kamala Harris have more than 15 million TikTok followers on Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
2.397	7.4%	Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) by Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
2.394	8.2%	Between August 21 and Sept 11, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 6 and less than or equal to 7?	Binary
2.386	91.3%	Will exactly 3 major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?	Binary
2.374	9.0%	Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
2.369	4.5%	On July 17, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?	Binary
2.287	7.9%	Will astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore be on Earth on September 15, 2024?	Binary
2.171	22.4%	Will the Olympic record for the men's pole vault be broken at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
2.098	13.1%	On September 30, 2024, will JD Vance be the Republican nominee for vice president in the 2024 election?	Binary
2.057	13.2%	Will Tether collapse before September 30, 2024?	Binary
2.028	99.0%	Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16?	Binary
2.024	11.9%	Will the Prime Minister of France belong to the New Popular Front coalition on July 30, 2024?	Binary
1.984	11.2%	Will Jonas Vingegaard win the Tour de France 2024?	Binary
1.918	7.3%	Will Kamala Harris's net favorability rating be higher than -8 as reported by 538 on September 1, 2024?	Binary
1.901	8.4%	On July 21, 2024, will the closing value of BSE SENSEX be greater than 76k and less than or equal to 77k?	Binary
1.898	52.7%	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
1.883	7.1%	Will Kamala Harris's net favorability rating be higher than -8 as reported by 538 on October 1, 2024?	Binary
1.788	7.2%	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
1.772	7.2%	Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 120 on October 7, 2024?	Binary
1.755	13.1%	Will Planet Nine be discovered before September 30, 2024?	Binary
1.728	7.2%	Will Donald Trump's net favorability rating be higher than -8 as reported by 538 on October 1, 2024?	Binary
1.673	11.0%	Will someone other than Tadej Pogačar or Jonas Vingegaard win the Tour de France 2024?	Binary
1.568	98.4%	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Tesla?	Binary
1.562	11.7%	Will the Prime Minister of France belong to a coalition other than New Popular Front or Together on July 30, 2024?	Binary
1.556	11.7%	Will the Prime Minister of France belong to the Together coalition on July 30, 2024?	Binary
1.549	8.8%	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before September 30, 2024?	Binary
1.529	7.7%	Will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 2 and less than or equal to 4 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?	Binary
1.520	8.2%	Before October 1, 2024, will Anthropic announce on the news section of its website that it is planning an IPO?	Binary
1.516	6.8%	Will more than 40 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
1.504	12.5%	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before September 30, 2024?	Binary
1.410	8.3%	Between August 21 and Sept 11, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 6 and less than or equal to 8?	Binary
1.403	8.5%	On July 21, 2024, will the closing value of BSE SENSEX be greater than 75k and less than or equal to 76k?	Binary
1.324	10.5%	Will "Woman's World" by Katy Perry achieve a ranking higher than 15th on the Billboard Hot 100 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
1.273	12.8%	Will the Prime Minister of France on August 31, 2024 belong to Macron's "Together" coalition?	Binary
1.263	52.7%	Will the CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index (VXVCLS) be higher Year-over-Year on September 20, 2024?	Binary
1.216	7.4%	Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 80 on October 7, 2024?	Binary
1.214	6.9%	Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before September 30, 2024, according to the Institute for the Study of War?	Binary
1.202	11.7%	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. have more than 15 million TikTok followers on Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
1.186	6.0%	Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president less than twice before October 1, 2024?	Binary
1.179	10.2%	Will Tesla increase its production in Q3 2024 compared with Q2 2024?	Binary
1.165	5.2%	Will the time gap between the first and second place finishers in the 2024 Tour de France be more than 3 minutes?	Binary
1.125	8.8%	Will Bo Nix be the starting quarterback for the Denver Broncos in their Week 4 game against the New York Jets?	Binary
1.121	6.2%	Will Kamala Harris say "I'm speaking" in the presidential debate with Donald Trump?	Binary
1.072	11.0%	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
1.055	8.5%	Between August 21 and Sept 11, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 7 and less than or equal to 8?	Binary
1.023	12.0%	Will the UK Abolish the Two-Child Benefit Cap before October 1, 2024?	Binary
1.020	22.2%	Will the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on Sept 30, 2024, be less than 300 herds?	Binary
1.013	12.4%	Will the United Nations have more than 193 member states before October 1, 2024?	Binary
0.984	6.1%	Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president more than once before October 1, 2024?	Binary
0.972	12.2%	Will a publicly-available LLM achieve gold on the International Math Olympiad before October 1, 2024?	Binary
0.934	12.8%	Will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be more than $2 trillion on September 29, 2024?	Binary
0.924	2.2%	Will the CDC report 12 to 20 total human cases of H5 in the United States on October 1, 2024?	Binary
0.918	2.7%	Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates before September 30, 2024?	Binary
0.917	7.7%	Will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 3 and less than or equal to 4 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?	Binary
0.887	2.3%	Will the next interstellar object be discovered before September 30, 2024?	Binary
0.850	2.0%	Will OpenAI announce GPT-5 before September 30, 2024?	Binary
0.810	5.6%	Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before September 30, 2024?	Binary
0.780	8.1%	Will there be a debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump on September 4, 2024?	Binary
0.719	8.6%	Will exactly 2 Starship launches reach an altitude of 160 kilometers between July 1, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
0.706	7.7%	Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
0.694	74.8%	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Rivian?	Binary
0.691	2.6%	Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024?	Binary
0.667	2.3%	Will Kalenjin athletes win both the men's and women's marathon races at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
0.651	11.4%	Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024?	Binary
0.641	7.4%	Will the maximum weekly rate of COVID-19 hospitalizations occurring in the United States between June 1 and August 31, 2024 exceed 3.5 per 100,000 people?	Binary
0.637	11.7%	Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?	Binary
0.623	2.1%	Between July 17 and July 28, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 4 and less than or equal to 5?	Binary
0.621	8.4%	Will Individual Neutral Athletes Win ≥15 Gold Medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?	Binary
0.615	1.5%	Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024?	Binary
0.600	2.5%	Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Binary
0.594	7.4%	Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
0.587	2.3%	Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before September 30, 2024?	Binary
0.580	2.1%	Will Russia confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
0.576	11.4%	Will Tadej Pogačar win the Tour de France 2024?	Binary
0.566	2.0%	Will the CDC report more than 100 total human cases of H5 in the United States on October 1, 2024?	Binary
0.559	2.5%	Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel through Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
0.557	2.5%	Will Hawaiian Electric Company file for bankruptcy before September 30, 2024?	Binary
0.554	7.1%	Will more than 20 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
0.544	8.2%	On July 21, 2024, will the closing value of BSE SENSEX be greater than 75k and less than or equal to 77k?	Binary
0.519	5.4%	At the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024, will the men's 100m dash winning time break the Olympic record of 9.63s?	Binary
0.516	2.1%	Will USA, Sweden, England, or France win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?	Binary
0.494	6.7%	Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before October 1, 2024?	Binary
0.485	8.8%	Will Jeff Bezos be the 1st or 2nd richest person in the world on September 30, 2024, according to Forbes?	Binary
0.452	2.4%	Will the Fed cut rates by 25 bps at their September meeting?	Binary
0.452	2.8%	Will Poland win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?	Binary
0.443	2.9%	Will Tesla increase its deliveries in Q3 2024 compared with Q2 2024?	Binary
0.423	2.7%	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024?	Binary
0.421	2.9%	Will a senolytic therapy be approved for commercial sale by the US FDA before September 30, 2024?	Binary
0.409	1.4%	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024?	Binary
0.400	7.7%	Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024?	Binary
0.353	8.1%	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024?	Binary
0.347	1.9%	Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before August 31, 2024?	Binary
0.339	1.7%	Will the Fed cut rates by more than 50 bps at their September meeting?	Binary
0.327	1.6%	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.1%?	Binary
0.316	2.2%	Will someone other than Fabiano Caruana, Alireza Firouzja, Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu, or Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Binary
0.310	2.4%	Will Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Binary
0.308	10.1%	Will Spirit Airlines file for bankruptcy before October 1, 2024?	Binary
0.287	2.0%	Between July 17 and July 28, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 4 and less than or equal to 6?	Binary
0.250	8.6%	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Netflix?	Binary
0.250	3.4%	Will Mexico confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
0.234	2.5%	Will the Fed hold rates steady at their September meeting?	Binary
0.218	7.6%	Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 60 on October 7, 2024?	Binary
0.207	1.1%	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before October 1, 2024?	Binary
0.188	1.7%	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.0% or less?	Binary
0.183	4.8%	Will 4 or more goals be scored in the two semi-final games combined in the 2024 UEFA European Championship?	Binary
0.178	0.9%	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Google or Alphabet?	Binary
0.176	1.7%	Will George R. R. Martin's “The Winds of Winter” be released before October 1, 2024?	Binary
0.123	0.5%	Will Prince Tom Iseghohi win the September 21, 2024 Edo state gubernatorial election in Nigeria?	Binary
0.123	0.9%	Will the S&P 500 index go up in September 2024?	Binary
0.108	2.5%	Will Germany win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?	Binary
0.084	9.0%	Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined?	Binary
0.079	1.1%	Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?	Binary
0.044	2.3%	Will a country other than Poland, Germany, USA, Sweden, England, or France win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?	Binary
0.026	2.0%	Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024?	Binary
0.022	2.4%	Will Ukrainian forces capture Korenevo (51°24'37.7"N 34°54'02.2"E) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
0.017	0.1%	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by October 1, 2024?	Binary
0.016	2.1%	Between July 17 and July 28, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 5 and less than or equal to 6?	Binary
0.009	2.8%	Will Ukrainian forces capture Kursk Nuclear Plant 51°40'30.1"N 35°36'11.5"E before October 1, 2024?	Binary
0.002	85.9%	Will the CDC's assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public exceed "Low" before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-0.011	1.5%	Will Ukrainian forces capture Tetkino (51°16'45.1"N 34°16'57.7"E) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-0.012	2.5%	Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
-0.038	2.0%	Will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience exactly 1 day with an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Binary
-0.047	98.6%	Will Tesla increase its deliveries in Q3 2024 compared with Q2 2024?	Binary
-0.058	7.3%	Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 100 on October 7, 2024?	Binary
-0.082	2.2%	Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Binary
-0.089	0.7%	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign before September 24, 2024?	Binary
-0.101	7.0%	Will at least 5 major hurricanes occur in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
-0.106	2.6%	Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Binary
-0.149	1.6%	Will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience 6 to 10 days with an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Binary
-0.184	2.1%	Will the Fed cut rates by 50 bps at their September meeting?	Binary
-0.197	1.9%	Will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience 2 to 5 days with an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Binary
-0.243	2.4%	Will an athlete win more than one medal for tennis at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
-0.250	7.2%	Will more than 10 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
-0.258	1.5%	Will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience 11 or more days with an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Binary
-0.278	7.8%	Will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 2 and less than or equal to 3 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?	Binary
-0.284	98.9%	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Nvidia?	Binary
-0.346	2.5%	Will the USA win more Gold than Silver medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?	Binary
-0.377	6.8%	Will more than 30 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
-0.416	1.9%	Will Japan confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-0.446	1.8%	Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
-0.468	2.6%	Will the Canadian Dollars to U.S. Dollar Spot Exchange Rate exceed 1.3600 on Friday September 20, 2024, according to FRED?	Binary
-0.473	1.1%	Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president more than once before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-0.494	9.3%	At the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024, will the men's 100m dash winning time break the Olympic record of 9.63s?	Binary
-0.570	3.0%	Will Ukrainian forces capture B. Soldatskoe (51°20'15.4"N 35°30'27.1"E) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-0.574	2.5%	Will Ukrainian forces capture Glushkovo (51°20'43.9"N 34°38'54.9"E) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-0.618	88.6%	On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 200 and less than or equal to 300 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?	Binary
-0.649	8.1%	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
-0.825	1.8%	Will the CDC report 21 to 100 total human cases of H5 in the United States on October 1, 2024?	Binary
-0.854	98.4%	Will any major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?	Binary
-1.050	9.3%	Will exactly 1 or 2 Starship launches reach an altitude of 160 kilometers between July 1, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
-1.059	8.9%	Will at least 24 world records be broken at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
-1.407	6.4%	Before October 1, 2024, will a federal court rule in favor of a challenge to a major Clean Air Act provision, citing Chevron's overturning as a key factor?	Binary
-1.435	60.9%	Will any new iPhone model be announced supporting Wi-Fi 7 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-1.457	5.7%	Will the Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator increase Year-over-Year for Aug 2024?	Binary
-1.559	12.0%	Before October 1, 2024, will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands in any of their debates, if any happen?	Binary
-1.736	7.1%	Will the CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index (VXVCLS) be higher Year-over-Year on July 20, 2024?	Binary
-2.180	8.2%	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign before September 24, 2024?	Binary
-2.563	7.5%	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before September 30, 2024?	Binary
-2.614	8.6%	Will exactly 1 Starship launch reach an altitude of 160 kilometers between July 1, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
-3.178	98.1%	Will SpaceX make any new posts on its Updates page before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-3.257	11.5%	Will there be a debate between the Republican vice presidential nominee and the Democratic vice presidential nominee before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-3.407	98.1%	Will the USDA-posted recall of Michael Foods Inc.'s Fair Meadow Foundations Liquid Egg Products issued June 30, 2024 be closed before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-3.595	63.7%	Will Hikaru Nakamura win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Binary
-4.793	6.1%	Will Joe Biden announce before July 31, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President?	Binary
-4.963	85.4%	Will the CDC's assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public exceed "Moderate" before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-5.448	12.5%	Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-5.934	79.4%	Will Alireza Firouzja win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Binary
-6.574	93.1%	Will exactly 2 major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?	Binary
-8.457	53.5%	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before September 30, 2024?	Binary
-10.397	57.7%	Will Ukraine withdraw from Kursk before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-10.488	63.9%	Will Magnus Carlsen win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Binary
-10.820	12.0%	Will Apple announce an iPhone with a graphene thermal system before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-10.852	89.7%	Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-11.063	3.0%	Will Revolut obtain a UK banking license before September 30, 2024?	Binary
-13.445	97.6%	Will the Chicago White Sox lose 124 games in the 2024 MLB season, before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-14.083	83.3%	Will Angola confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-17.111	96.7%	Will The Bear win the 2024 Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Comedy Series?	Binary
-27.336	85.4%	Will Virgin Galactic make any new posts on its News page before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-28.366	97.6%	Will Fargo win the 2024 Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series?	Binary
-31.098	88.8%	Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election?	Binary
-32.590	8.7%	Will the Warren Buffett Indicator exceed 200% before September 17, 2024?	Binary
-35.361	90.5%	Will AfD's vote share be less than or equal to 28% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Binary
-37.068	89.8%	Will AfD's vote share be more than 28% and less than or equal to 30% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Binary
-41.720	99.0%	Will Comex Gold Spot prices exceed $2,700 per ounce before October 1, 2024 according to Yahoo Finance?	Binary
-46.094	99.6%	Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-50.186	96.7%	Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 17.0 and less than or equal to 18.0 for August 2024?	Binary
-79.890	86.2%	Will Laredo Oil, Inc., file its 10-K annual report with the SEC before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-83.273	96.3%	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.205 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
-87.864	99.6%	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be less than $3.00 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
-100.377	92.8%	Will any of the Waltons be worth $100 billion or more on September 30, 2024, according to Forbes?	Binary
-128.221	97.1%	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.10 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary