cjwilliams

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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3.85	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
52.786	When will the successor to Kevin McCarthy be elected as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives?	Continuous
50.352	When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT?	Continuous
49.307	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
47.026	Will the Conservatives hold on to their seat in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election?	Binary
34.915	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
33.913	How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives to replace Kevin McCarthy?	Continuous
33.737	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?	Binary
33.602	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
27.576	How much additional aid for Ukraine will the US Congress approve before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
26.786	Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?	Binary
26.765	Will a nearly continuous human chain stretch across the length of the Forth and Clyde Canal on 14 October 2023?	Binary
26.571	Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?	Binary
26.543	Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?	Binary
25.762	Will George Weah win re-election in the 2023 Liberian General Election?	Binary
20.855	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
20.053	Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?	Binary
18.707	Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?	Binary
18.057	Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?	Binary
15.165	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
14.819	Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024?	Binary
14.487	Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?	Binary
14.222	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?	Binary
13.281	Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?	Binary
13.029	How many airborne objects will be shot down in North American airspace in 2023?	Continuous
12.271	What will the price of November 2023 Dutch TTF natural gas futures (in Euros per megawatt-hour) be on September 29, 2023?	Continuous
11.910	When will Tunisia restore overnight public access to water?	Continuous
11.707	Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024?	Binary
11.683	Will a mandatory evacuation order be issued for any area of Virginia related to any tropical cyclone in 2023?	Binary
11.374	What percentage of the possession will the winning team have in the Women's World Cup Final?	Continuous
10.706	Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?	Binary
10.242	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?	Binary
8.998	Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?	Binary
8.650	Will the US Supreme Court declare the Indian Child Welfare Act unconstitutional?	Binary
8.355	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?	Binary
8.148	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?	Binary
7.864	Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?	Binary
7.812	Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?	Binary
7.545	Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023?	Binary
7.439	Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2023?	Binary
7.121	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (4)	Binary
6.705	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (1)	Binary
6.538	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (3)	Binary
6.313	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (2)	Binary
6.278	Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023?	Binary
5.981	What will NVIDIA's market cap be at the end of 2023?	Continuous
5.863	Will OpenAI open-source GPT-3 before 2024?	Binary
5.702	Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?	Binary
5.287	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
4.920	Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?	Binary
4.856	Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?	Binary
4.644	What percentage of the vote will presidential candidate candidate Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Open Primaries Elections?	Continuous
4.621	Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023?	Binary
4.539	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (7)	Binary
4.460	Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024?	Binary
4.389	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (0)	Binary
4.297	Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?	Binary
4.279	Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?	Binary
4.154	Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?	Binary
4.098	Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?	Binary
3.911	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
3.877	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023?	Binary
3.864	Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?	Binary
3.733	Will the writers' strike be active on May 12th, 2023?	Binary
3.683	Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024?	Binary
3.354	Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
3.235	Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?	Binary
3.202	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
3.126	Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023?	Binary
2.971	Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?	Binary
2.915	Will Peter Bone MP be suspended from Parliament in 2023 (without first resigning)?	Binary
2.880	Will France send their military to intervene in the Gabonese coup in 2023?	Binary
2.870	Will Sarah Bernstein or Chetna Maroo win the 2023 Booker Prize?	Binary
2.789	What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) on December 30, 2023?	Continuous
2.751	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (5)	Binary
2.686	Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023?	Binary
2.623	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
2.435	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
2.335	What will be the size of the 2024 EU Budget?	Continuous
2.196	Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?	Binary
2.115	Will Apple announce a Mixed Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
2.110	Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning?	Binary
1.879	Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden’s Ukraine dealings before September 1st?	Binary
1.835	Will Luisa González receive the most votes in the first round of the Ecuadorian election?	Binary
1.790	Will the total number of people staying in NYC homeless shelters exceed 100,000 for any day of 2023?	Binary
1.427	Will any of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT drop essay requirements for the application to the 2024 undergraduate class?	Binary
1.425	Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023?	Binary
1.418	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (6)	Binary
1.356	Will the Israeli High Court uphold the "reasonableness" law?	Binary
1.274	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (September 2)	Continuous
1.157	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?	Binary
1.094	Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?	Binary
1.027	Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023?	Binary
1.026	Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023?	Binary
0.931	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
0.809	Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?	Binary
0.691	Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023?	Binary
0.654	Will there be a confirmed case of Marburg virus in Algeria by July 28th?	Binary
0.304	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023?	Binary
0.155	Will Representative George Santos be expelled from the US. House of Representatives before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-0.119	When will Joe Biden issue his third veto?	Continuous
-0.360	What rating will Bethesda's video game Starfield have on Steam two weeks after release?	Continuous
-0.492	ECOWAS Intervention Before August 12, 2023? (No) → Mohamed Bazoum in Power By August 31, 2023?	Binary
-0.803	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (President Ali Bongo Ondimba)	Binary
-1.054	Will the majority of OpenAI's Board of Directors leave the Board before December 1, 2023?	Binary
-1.963	Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections?	Binary
-1.979	Will Donald Trump participate in the 2nd Republican primary debate?	Binary
-2.287	Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?	Binary
-2.809	Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?	Binary
-3.052	Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?	Binary
-3.264	Will the MONUSCO UN peacekeeping mission to the Democratic Republic of the Congo be extended with a military personnel ceiling above 11,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-3.280	Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-3.751	Will New Delhi experience a "Very Unhealthy" or worse air quality index on at least four of the seven days for the week starting October 29?	Binary
-3.990	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (Albert Ondo Ossa)	Binary
-4.310	What will be the average partisan vote swing from 2020 to 2023 in state-level special elections held in the US before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
-4.551	Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?	Binary
-4.883	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-5.025	Will any additional Republican candidates for president drop out before 2024?	Binary
-5.654	How much will Donald Trump's Republican primary polling average change two weeks after the first debate?	Continuous
-6.228	Will OpenAI report having ≥99% uptime for ChatGPT and the OpenAI API in December 2023?	Binary
-6.925	Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024?	Binary
-6.959	Will the EU Parliament endorse a negotiating mandate for the AI Act before June 16, 2023?	Binary
-7.275	Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List?	Binary
-9.380	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (General Brice Oligui Nguema)	Binary
-9.850	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?	Binary
-11.346	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
-11.394	Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?	Binary
-12.525	How many countries will have approved the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine on June 30, 2023?	Continuous
-14.062	Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days?	Binary
-15.058	Will there be an additional Russian IPO on the MICEX in 2023?	Binary
-15.929	Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-15.982	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on September 30, 2023?	Continuous
-17.608	Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?	Binary
-17.957	When will New York City’s period of consecutive rainy weekends end?	Continuous
-19.496	Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?	Binary
-22.732	When will the second Starship test flight occur?	Continuous
-23.269	Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023?	Binary
-35.504	What will be the effective number of political parties in the Netherlands parliament following the 2023 election?	Continuous
-42.979	Will large language models become the state of the art for machine translation in 2023?	Binary
-82.754	When will the next volcanic eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula in Iceland begin?	Continuous