edoardo.baratelli

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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5.11	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
73.629	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024?	Binary
71.905	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
64.999	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
63.055	Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?	Binary
51.713	Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?	Binary
46.554	When will the second Starship test flight occur?	Continuous
45.438	Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel?	Binary
42.443	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
42.250	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
38.127	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?	Binary
36.833	Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?	Binary
36.115	Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?	Binary
34.931	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Sergio Massa)	Binary
34.134	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
30.685	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
30.211	Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023?	Binary
30.013	Russian Coup or Regime Change before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?	Binary
29.398	Will the US Supreme Court declare the Indian Child Welfare Act unconstitutional?	Binary
26.647	Will there be more than 10 ministerial resignations in Rishi Sunak’s government before 2024?	Binary
25.537	Will at least one mink farm worker die from any strain of bird flu in 2023?	Binary
25.239	Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?	Binary
25.077	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Javier Milei)	Binary
24.002	Will Italy lose its investment-grade credit rating in May 2023?	Binary
23.344	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024?	Binary
22.519	Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?	Binary
21.482	Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?	Binary
19.600	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?	Binary
19.330	Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?	Binary
18.288	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
17.169	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
17.061	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)	Binary
16.438	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?	Binary
15.462	Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023?	Binary
14.829	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?	Binary
13.780	What rating will Bethesda's video game Starfield have on Steam two weeks after release?	Continuous
12.937	Will the Palme d'Or, the top prize at the 2023 Cannes Film Festival, be awarded to a film from a European country?	Binary
12.811	Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?	Binary
12.783	Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023?	Binary
12.327	Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?	Binary
11.974	Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?	Binary
11.494	Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions?	Binary
11.466	Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?	Binary
11.439	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
10.861	Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden’s Ukraine dealings before September 1st?	Binary
10.330	How much additional aid for Ukraine will the US Congress approve before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
9.683	Will OpenAI open-source GPT-3 before 2024?	Binary
9.659	Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List?	Binary
9.556	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?	Binary
9.292	Short Fuse: Will the 'Titan' submersible be recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22?	Binary
9.147	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2024)	Binary
9.059	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023?	Binary
8.635	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Emmer (R))	Binary
8.375	Will SpaceX receive a launch license for Starship from the FAA before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
8.150	Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?	Binary
8.144	Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024?	Binary
8.134	Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023?	Binary
8.016	Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?	Binary
7.891	Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024?	Binary
7.868	Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning?	Binary
7.782	Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?	Binary
7.446	Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024?	Binary
7.143	[Short Fuse] Will the total credit extended through all Fed liquidity facilities exceed $500 billion for any week before May 2023?	Binary
7.026	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
7.023	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
7.012	Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?	Binary
6.980	Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?	Binary
6.598	Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023?	Binary
6.527	Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?	Binary
6.411	Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023?	Binary
6.389	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
6.067	Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?	Binary
6.059	Will the MONUSCO UN peacekeeping mission to the Democratic Republic of the Congo be extended with a military personnel ceiling above 11,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
5.930	Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?	Binary
5.887	Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?	Binary
5.766	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
5.572	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Tokmak railway station on January 1, 2024?	Binary
5.427	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
5.391	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
5.377	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Patricia Bullrich)	Binary
5.371	Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?	Binary
5.325	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Law and Justice (PiS))	Binary
4.730	Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023?	Binary
4.725	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
4.552	Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023?	Binary
4.546	Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?	Binary
4.475	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?	Binary
4.458	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Civic Platform)	Binary
4.323	Will Ukraine be confirmed to have used chemical weapons against Russian forces by January 1, 2024?	Binary
4.025	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?	Binary
3.910	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023?	Binary
3.845	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
3.811	Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?	Binary
3.659	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Rescued or escaped)	Continuous
3.595	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
3.492	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
3.472	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
3.385	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
3.329	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
3.301	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
3.256	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
3.205	Will Donald Trump participate in the 2nd Republican primary debate?	Binary
3.181	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Myriam Bregman)	Binary
3.160	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Juan Schiaretti)	Binary
3.126	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Nancy Mace (R))	Binary
3.073	Will the US Housing Market crash in 2023?	Binary
3.035	Will Ding Liren win the 2023 World Chess Championship?	Binary
3.007	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
3.002	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
2.641	Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days?	Binary
2.365	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
2.315	Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023?	Binary
2.263	Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?	Binary
2.182	Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024?	Binary
1.975	Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?	Binary
1.889	Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?	Binary
1.795	Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2024)	Binary
1.598	Will the Russian Luna-25 mission reach Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023?	Binary
1.478	Will Starship achieve liftoff before Monday, May 1st, 2023?	Binary
1.443	Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024?	Binary
1.171	Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?	Binary
1.101	Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
0.866	Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?	Binary
0.782	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Poland 2050)	Binary
0.748	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (New Left)	Binary
0.744	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Agreement)	Binary
0.732	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Kukiz'15)	Binary
0.725	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Polish Coalition)	Binary
0.715	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Democratic Left)	Binary
0.714	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Confederation)	Binary
0.653	Will F-22 or F-35 fighter jets be pledged to Ukraine by January 1, 2024?	Binary
0.519	Will Meta's Voicebox model be leaked by July 1, 2023?	Binary
0.416	Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?	Binary
0.308	Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023?	Binary
0.214	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023?	Binary
0.210	Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023?	Binary
0.196	Will any of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT drop essay requirements for the application to the 2024 undergraduate class?	Binary
0.105	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
0.104	Will there be a Twitter outage resulting in no tweets for more than 60 minutes before July 1, 2023?	Binary
0.099	Will there be there be a resurgence of influenza in Virginia to "High" or "Very High" level at any point during the rest of the 2022-2023 flu season?	Binary
0.049	Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?	Binary
0.034	Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
-1.471	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (November 7, 2023)	Binary
-2.314	Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?	Binary
-2.648	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-2.961	Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?	Binary
-4.458	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
-4.606	Will the Federal Open Market Committee raise interest rates at the June 13-14, 2023 meeting?	Binary
-5.799	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Released by captor)	Continuous
-7.421	Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?	Binary
-9.282	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on September 30, 2023?	Continuous
-10.339	Will Amritpal Singh be in Indian custody before April 21, 2023?	Binary
-35.914	When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT?	Continuous
-36.513	Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023?	Binary
-40.651	Will large language models become the state of the art for machine translation in 2023?	Binary
-49.181	Will voting in Twitter polls require verification on April 16, 2023?	Binary
-52.111	Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?	Binary
-81.218	Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?	Binary
-89.962	Will OpenAI reduce the cost of the GPT-4 API by at least 2/3 (<=$0.01/1k prompt tokens for 8k context) before 2024?	Binary
-111.697	Will Representative George Santos be expelled from the US. House of Representatives before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-125.882	Will the US Supreme Court issue a decision on hearing the case about presidential immunity before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-162.496	Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?	Binary