evergreenemily

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

5.866	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
110.697	How many FDIC banks will fail in 2023?	Continuous
67.005	What discretionary funding level will President Biden request for NASA in his 2024 budget?	Continuous
58.763	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
54.004	Will voting in Twitter polls require verification on April 16, 2023?	Binary
42.677	What will be the size of the 2024 EU Budget?	Continuous
35.737	Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel?	Binary
35.136	How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives to replace Kevin McCarthy?	Continuous
34.168	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu)	Binary
33.593	Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?	Binary
33.535	How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (December 2023)	Continuous
32.886	When will Tunisia restore overnight public access to water?	Continuous
32.338	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
31.111	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
28.683	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024?	Binary
27.549	Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?	Binary
27.236	Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023?	Binary
25.939	Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024?	Binary
25.687	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)	Binary
25.398	How much additional aid for Ukraine will the US Congress approve before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
24.938	Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?	Binary
23.935	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Kate Forbes)	Binary
21.887	Will the US Supreme Court declare the Indian Child Welfare Act unconstitutional?	Binary
20.330	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
20.278	Trump participates in first debate? (No) → Trump Polling Change Two Weeks After Debate?	Continuous
19.902	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sundar Pichai)	Binary
19.549	Will a mandatory evacuation order be issued for any area of Virginia related to any tropical cyclone in 2023?	Binary
19.037	Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections?	Binary
19.016	When will the U.S. end the public health emergency for COVID-19?	Continuous
18.889	Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?	Binary
18.586	Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?	Binary
18.416	What will be the search engine market share of Bing in December of 2023?	Continuous
17.806	How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (June 2023)	Continuous
17.654	Will the KBW Bank Index record at least a 33% drop from January 3, 2023 levels before May 1, 2023?	Binary
17.459	Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?	Binary
16.862	When will the successor to Kevin McCarthy be elected as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives?	Continuous
16.642	Will the UK Labour Party have a polling lead of at least 10% on 1 January 2024?	Binary
15.887	Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?	Binary
15.730	Will OpenAI open-source GPT-3 before 2024?	Binary
15.462	Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?	Binary
15.135	Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?	Binary
15.074	Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?	Binary
14.682	How many Palestinian prisoners/detainees will Israel announce that it will release before 2024?	Continuous
13.864	Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023?	Binary
13.817	Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?	Binary
13.527	What rating will Bethesda's video game Starfield have on Steam two weeks after release?	Continuous
12.644	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024?	Binary
12.569	Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?	Binary
11.929	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
11.639	Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024?	Binary
11.606	Will Israel still be rated "Free" in the Freedom in the World 2024 Report (covering the year 2023)?	Binary
11.580	How much will Donald Trump's Republican primary polling average change two weeks after the first debate?	Continuous
11.446	How many countries will be less happy in 2022 as compared to 2019 according to the World Happiness Report?	Continuous
11.324	Will the US Supreme Court issue a decision on hearing the case about presidential immunity before January 1, 2024?	Binary
11.290	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Emmer (R))	Binary
10.944	How many people will die in the Sudan conflict in 2023?	Continuous
10.845	Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023?	Binary
10.764	Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?	Binary
10.758	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
10.420	Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?	Binary
10.230	Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023?	Binary
10.214	Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?	Binary
10.133	Will SpaceX receive a launch license for Starship from the FAA before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
10.005	When will The One Ring be found?	Continuous
9.713	What will be the average partisan vote swing from 2020 to 2023 in state-level special elections held in the US before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
9.397	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mansur Yavaş)	Binary
8.891	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024?	Binary
8.759	Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?	Binary
8.716	When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT?	Continuous
8.629	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
8.619	How many additional H5N1 infections will be reported in wild birds across the United States by the end of March 2023?	Continuous
8.229	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Peter Obi)	Binary
8.035	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
8.033	Will the Palestinian Authority declare itself bankrupt before the end of 2023?	Binary
7.945	Will GPT-4 exhibit a capability jump for Leetcode questions before 2024?	Binary
7.667	Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?	Binary
7.658	Will there be more Antarctic sea ice on March 7, 2023 than there was on March 7, 2022?	Binary
7.533	Will Donald Trump participate in the 2nd Republican primary debate?	Binary
7.473	Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?	Binary
7.337	Will the writers' strike be active on May 12th, 2023?	Binary
7.057	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
7.040	Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023?	Binary
6.961	Short Fuse: Will the 'Titan' submersible be recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22?	Binary
6.957	Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?	Binary
6.897	Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?	Binary
6.882	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023?	Binary
6.777	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
6.608	Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023?	Binary
6.562	Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?	Binary
6.549	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
6.479	Will Russia assume the presidency of the UN Security Council on April 1, 2023?	Binary
6.217	Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List?	Binary
6.211	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Ash Regan)	Binary
6.191	Will Representative George Santos be expelled from the US. House of Representatives before January 1, 2024?	Binary
6.145	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
6.145	Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?	Binary
5.935	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
5.911	Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023?	Binary
5.821	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
5.766	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
5.764	Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024?	Binary
5.697	Will Estonia legalize gay marriage in 2023?	Binary
5.695	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
5.451	Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?	Binary
5.448	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
5.446	Will Italy lose its investment-grade credit rating in May 2023?	Binary
5.304	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Nancy Mace (R))	Binary
5.295	Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?	Binary
5.213	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
5.212	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
5.012	Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023?	Binary
4.963	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
4.932	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?	Binary
4.918	Will Google Bard be available to the public on March 5th, 2023?	Binary
4.908	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
4.894	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
4.772	How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (September 2023)	Continuous
4.757	What will the Geopolitical Risk index be for 2023?	Continuous
4.718	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?	Binary
4.686	[Short Fuse] Will the total credit extended through all Fed liquidity facilities exceed $500 billion for any week before May 2023?	Binary
4.558	Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?	Binary
4.395	Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?	Binary
4.349	US Government Shutdown Before 2024? (No) → Johnson Speaker until 2024?	Binary
4.256	Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?	Binary
4.253	Will the 'Ending Agricultural Trade Suppression' Act pass in the US House of Representatives by January 3, 2024?	Binary
3.920	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023?	Binary
3.894	What percentage of the vote will presidential candidate candidate Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Open Primaries Elections?	Continuous
3.848	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
3.839	Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions?	Binary
3.836	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?	Binary
3.705	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Demis Hassabis)	Binary
3.628	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
3.477	Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
3.357	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Adam Schiff (D))	Binary
3.268	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
3.100	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sam Altman)	Binary
2.874	Will the Federal Open Market Committee raise interest rates at the June 13-14, 2023 meeting?	Binary
2.650	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Maxine Waters (D))	Binary
2.598	Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days?	Binary
2.597	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)	Binary
2.576	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (Greens+CDU)	Binary
2.355	Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
2.301	Will a country other than the United States shoot down a high-altitude object before the end of February, 2023?	Binary
2.285	Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?	Binary
1.942	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Austin Scott (R))	Binary
1.842	Will the total number of people staying in NYC homeless shelters exceed 100,000 for any day of 2023?	Binary
1.809	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Katie Porter (D))	Binary
1.710	Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?	Binary
1.695	When will the second Starship test flight occur?	Continuous
1.593	Will Starship achieve liftoff before Monday, May 1st, 2023?	Binary
1.308	When will the U.S. CDC recommend an additional updated COVID-19 vaccine booster dose for adults?	Continuous
1.242	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
1.217	Will there be a Twitter outage resulting in no tweets for more than 60 minutes before July 1, 2023?	Binary
1.182	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D))	Binary
1.166	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Poland 2050)	Binary
1.105	Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?	Binary
1.104	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (New Left)	Binary
1.094	Will F-22 or F-35 fighter jets be pledged to Ukraine by January 1, 2024?	Binary
1.092	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Meral Akşener)	Binary
1.079	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Agreement)	Binary
1.064	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Polish Coalition)	Binary
1.063	Will Santiago Peña win the Paraguayan presidential election on April 30th?	Binary
1.062	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Kukiz'15)	Binary
1.054	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Confederation)	Binary
1.040	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Democratic Left)	Binary
1.009	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Holly Mitchell (D))	Binary
0.938	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Barbara Lee (D))	Binary
0.918	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?	Binary
0.915	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Former Senator Barbara Boxer (D))	Binary
0.852	Will OpenAI report having ≥99% uptime for ChatGPT and the OpenAI API in December 2023?	Binary
0.807	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Brian Fitzpatrick (R))	Binary
0.783	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Rabiu Kwankwaso)	Binary
0.779	Will the US employment-population ratio fall below the COVID-19 low (51.3%) in any month in the following years, due to AI or otherwise? (2023)	Binary
0.765	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Cole (R))	Binary
0.764	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+Greens+FDP)	Binary
0.750	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+Greens)	Binary
0.729	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Mayor Karen Bass (D))	Binary
0.558	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Süleyman Soylu)	Binary
0.549	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mustafa Sarıgül)	Binary
0.546	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Devlet Bahçeli)	Binary
0.536	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Pervin Buldan)	Binary
0.528	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Abdullah Gül)	Binary
0.499	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Fatih Erbakan)	Binary
0.492	Will the OpenAI Tour 2023 plan to visit more than one African destination as of April 10th?	Binary
0.450	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Tansu Çiller)	Binary
0.449	Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?	Binary
0.431	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Doğu Perinçek)	Binary
0.424	Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023?	Binary
0.397	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Sergio Massa)	Binary
0.385	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan)	Binary
0.382	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Lee Zeldin (R))	Binary
0.378	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Dario Amodei)	Binary
0.300	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Angela Glover Blackwell (D))	Binary
0.289	Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?	Binary
0.280	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
0.277	Will any of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT drop essay requirements for the application to the 2024 undergraduate class?	Binary
0.262	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
0.258	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
0.252	Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?	Binary
0.190	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Lateefah Simon (D))	Binary
0.186	Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning?	Binary
0.180	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Mayor London Breed (D))	Binary
0.165	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
0.147	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Malia Cohen (D))	Binary
0.130	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Hunter Biden (D))	Binary
0.129	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
0.121	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023?	Binary
0.110	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Justice Leondra Kruger (D))	Binary
0.079	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
0.052	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Temel Karamollaoğlu)	Binary
0.010	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
-0.027	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
-0.112	Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?	Binary
-0.113	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Sinan Oğan)	Binary
-0.120	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ali Babacan)	Binary
-0.125	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Bola Tinubu)	Binary
-0.197	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Gültekin Uysal)	Binary
-0.210	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
-0.216	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce)	Binary
-0.247	Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?	Binary
-0.286	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
-0.289	Will the Nigerian Presidential Election on February 25th go to a run-off vote?	Binary
-0.319	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
-0.457	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ahmet Davutoğlu)	Binary
-0.474	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
-0.502	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+CDU)	Binary
-0.738	Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?	Binary
-1.001	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Laphonza Butler (D))	Binary
-1.449	Will there be a confirmed case of Marburg virus in Algeria by July 28th?	Binary
-1.725	Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024?	Binary
-1.743	[Short Fuse] How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress?	Continuous
-1.817	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+SPD+Greens)	Binary
-1.877	Will the US Housing Market crash in 2023?	Binary
-1.890	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Atiku Abubakar)	Binary
-2.203	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+SPD+FDP)	Binary
-2.228	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?	Binary
-2.271	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+FDP+Greens)	Binary
-2.572	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Mark Zuckerberg)	Binary
-2.600	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on September 30, 2023?	Continuous
-2.771	When will the U.S. CDC stop requiring line-level (patient-level) COVID-19 case data from states?	Continuous
-3.268	Will the Arctic sea ice extent be lower on each day of 2023 compared to that of 2012?	Binary
-3.394	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Humza Yusaf)	Binary
-4.679	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+Greens+Left)	Binary
-4.798	Will large language models become the state of the art for machine translation in 2023?	Binary
-5.308	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Javier Milei)	Binary
-5.470	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Sec. of State Shirley Weber (D))	Binary
-10.776	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Mike Johnson (R))	Binary
-14.117	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Civic Platform)	Binary
-15.509	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Law and Justice (PiS))	Binary
-16.097	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-19.195	Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024?	Binary
-20.225	Will US sovereign debt be downgraded in 2023?	Binary
-20.559	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-23.863	What will be the water level of Lake Mead (in feet) at the end of July of the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-23.963	Will the winner of stage 9 of the 2023 Tour De France also hold the yellow jersey at the end of the stage?	Binary
-26.042	Will the March seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States be lower than 3.6%?	Binary
-30.760	How many tech employees will be laid off in 2023 by April 25th?	Continuous
-45.854	What will the the total value of property damage (in US dollars) caused by tornados be in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous