MayMeta

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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5.34	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
86.139	What discretionary funding level will President Biden request for NASA in his 2024 budget?	Continuous
66.301	What will the highest monthly count of false English language COVID claims in 2023?	Continuous
60.587	How many FDIC banks will fail in 2023?	Continuous
60.412	Will the 2023 World Chess Championship go to tiebreaks?	Binary
59.537	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (Feb 11)	Continuous
57.033	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (Feb 25)	Continuous
53.590	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
46.323	Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?	Binary
44.501	Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?	Binary
42.202	How many ratings will Prince Harry's book Spare have on Amazon on January 20th at 7:00 pm GMT?	Continuous
37.800	How many goals will be scored in total across all four Champions League semifinal games in the 2022/23 season?	Continuous
32.771	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu)	Binary
29.268	Will the maiden flight of the H3 Launch Vehicle carrying ALOS-3 launch successfully and on time?	Binary
23.849	What will be the value of bilateral US-Taiwan trade in 2023?	Continuous
21.046	How many birds will be affected by avian influenza in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
20.494	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+Greens+Left)	Binary
20.367	What will be the search engine market share of Bing in December of 2023?	Continuous
19.850	[Short Fuse] How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress?	Continuous
18.230	What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (Feb 11)	Continuous
18.121	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?	Binary
17.895	How many YouTube views will Center - Day 30 - Return by Yoga With Adriene have at the following dates? (February 14)	Continuous
12.142	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?	Binary
11.910	What will be the water level of Lake Mead (in feet) at the end of July of the following years? (2023)	Continuous
11.785	Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
10.671	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (March 11)	Continuous
10.625	Will there be there be a resurgence of influenza in Virginia to "High" or "Very High" level at any point during the rest of the 2022-2023 flu season?	Binary
10.610	[Short Fuse] How many attendees will be at the next Metaculus Meetup? (February 2023)	Continuous
10.333	How many moves will be played in the first four rounds of the Ding - Nepo FIDE World Chess Championship 2023?	Continuous
9.869	When will Tunisia restore overnight public access to water?	Continuous
9.780	Will the KBW Bank Index record at least a 33% drop from January 3, 2023 levels before May 1, 2023?	Binary
9.280	How many additional H5N1 infections will be reported in wild birds across the United States by the end of March 2023?	Continuous
8.959	Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023?	Binary
8.286	Will voting in Twitter polls require verification on April 16, 2023?	Binary
8.242	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mansur Yavaş)	Binary
7.731	Will Sweden's Loreen win the Eurovision Song Contest 2023?	Binary
7.539	What will be the total finishing time for the 2023 Boston Marathon winners (male and female combined)?	Continuous
7.153	What will the Geopolitical Risk index be for 2023?	Continuous
7.115	Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024?	Binary
7.104	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
6.815	Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023?	Binary
6.549	Will Italy lose its investment-grade credit rating in May 2023?	Binary
6.320	Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?	Binary
6.008	What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (Feb 25)	Continuous
5.770	Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?	Binary
5.689	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
5.677	Will Apple announce a Mixed Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
5.516	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
5.245	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
5.229	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)	Binary
5.132	Will the total number of people staying in NYC homeless shelters exceed 100,000 for any day of 2023?	Binary
4.911	How many individuals will the New York City Department of Homeless Services report as being "in shelter" on May 22nd, 2023?	Continuous
4.799	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Vegas Golden Knights)	Binary
4.792	Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?	Binary
4.591	Will the US FDA authorize a new vaccine targeting COVID-19 in 2023?	Binary
4.512	Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023?	Binary
4.361	Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023?	Binary
4.292	Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?	Binary
4.280	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (Greens+CDU)	Binary
4.199	Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
4.060	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
4.058	Will a bird flu outbreak among minks on an additional mink farm result in the minks being culled before 2024?	Binary
3.981	[Short Fuse] Will the total credit extended through all Fed liquidity facilities exceed $500 billion for any week before May 2023?	Binary
3.684	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
3.683	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
3.639	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+Greens)	Binary
3.639	Will SpaceX receive a launch license for Starship from the FAA before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
3.617	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?	Binary
3.366	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?	Binary
3.335	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?	Binary
3.289	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+SPD+Greens)	Binary
3.262	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
3.185	When will the second Starship test flight occur?	Continuous
3.135	How many YouTube views will Center - Day 30 - Return by Yoga With Adriene have at the following dates? (February 7)	Continuous
3.063	Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?	Binary
2.960	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Atiku Abubakar)	Binary
2.701	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+FDP+Greens)	Binary
2.694	Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?	Binary
2.458	Will Starship achieve liftoff before Monday, May 1st, 2023?	Binary
2.049	Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?	Binary
1.891	Will the Arctic sea ice extent be lower on each day of 2023 compared to that of 2012?	Binary
1.831	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+Greens+FDP)	Binary
1.688	Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?	Binary
1.669	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)	Binary
1.645	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Peter Obi)	Binary
1.560	Will the majority of OpenAI's Board of Directors leave the Board before December 1, 2023?	Binary
1.547	Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?	Binary
1.052	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Meral Akşener)	Binary
0.889	Will Apple announce a Virtual Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
0.884	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023?	Binary
0.870	Will Amritpal Singh be in Indian custody before April 21, 2023?	Binary
0.824	Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?	Binary
0.805	Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024?	Binary
0.705	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
0.657	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
0.636	Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024?	Binary
0.602	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
0.583	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
0.563	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
0.550	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Kate Forbes)	Binary
0.512	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
0.497	How many seats will the Nation Alliance be reported to win in the 2023 Turkish parliamentary election?	Continuous
0.490	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Dallas Stars)	Binary
0.386	2023 World Chess Championship tiebreaks? (Yes) → Ding Liren 2023 World Chess Champion?	Binary
0.368	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce)	Binary
0.351	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Carolina Hurricanes)	Binary
0.318	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ali Babacan)	Binary
0.273	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Ash Regan)	Binary
0.249	Will the statutory debt limit be increased or suspended for at least 30 days in the United States before 2024?	Binary
0.213	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
0.201	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ahmet Davutoğlu)	Binary
0.147	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Gültekin Uysal)	Binary
0.089	Will ChatGPT have multiple tiers of capability before 2024?	Binary
0.087	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan)	Binary
0.067	Wagner Group Controls Moscow by July 1, 2023? (No) → Ukraine Controls DNR/LNR on Jan 1, 2024	Binary
0.040	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Humza Yusaf)	Binary
0.040	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Temel Karamollaoğlu)	Binary
0.034	Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?	Binary
-0.053	Will a country other than the United States shoot down a high-altitude object before the end of February, 2023?	Binary
-0.081	Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023?	Binary
-0.112	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
-0.121	Will countries commit at least 100 US/German-made modern main battle tanks to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
-0.128	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Rabiu Kwankwaso)	Binary
-0.170	Will New York City break its record by going more than 332 days without measurable snow?	Binary
-0.210	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mustafa Sarıgül)	Binary
-0.217	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Sinan Oğan)	Binary
-0.221	Will the suspected Chinese surveillance balloon be on the ground before February 11th, 2023?	Binary
-0.331	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Abdullah Gül)	Binary
-0.349	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Doğu Perinçek)	Binary
-0.351	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Tansu Çiller)	Binary
-0.369	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Devlet Bahçeli)	Binary
-0.476	Will Google Bard be available to the public on March 5th, 2023?	Binary
-0.528	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
-0.616	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Süleyman Soylu)	Binary
-0.650	When will the U.S. end the public health emergency for COVID-19?	Continuous
-0.683	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Fatih Erbakan)	Binary
-0.702	Will the writers' strike be active on May 12th, 2023?	Binary
-0.777	Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023?	Binary
-0.999	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Pervin Buldan)	Binary
-1.077	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in January 2023?	Continuous
-1.186	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
-1.558	In 2023, will a non-European team win the FIFA Club World Cup for the first time since 2012?	Binary
-1.597	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
-2.068	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Florida Panthers)	Binary
-2.155	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
-2.241	How many U.S. jurisdictions will experience "high" or "very high" influenza activity for the week ending January 21, 2023?	Continuous
-2.253	Will Virgin Orbit file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
-2.337	Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight?	Binary
-2.758	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
-3.160	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+SPD+FDP)	Binary
-3.513	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024?	Binary
-3.620	Will Ding Liren win the 2023 World Chess Championship?	Binary
-3.680	Will there be a Twitter outage resulting in no tweets for more than 60 minutes before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-4.525	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
-4.602	Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 27th, 2023?	Binary
-4.674	Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
-5.581	When will the U.S. CDC stop requiring line-level (patient-level) COVID-19 case data from states?	Continuous
-7.011	Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?	Binary
-7.551	Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023?	Binary
-10.032	Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-11.072	Will the UK Labour Party have a polling lead of at least 10% on 1 January 2024?	Binary
-11.521	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024?	Binary
-11.627	Will US sovereign debt be downgraded in 2023?	Binary
-12.298	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Bola Tinubu)	Binary
-12.462	Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023?	Binary
-13.172	Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024?	Binary
-13.923	What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (March 11)	Continuous
-14.116	How many mpox cases will Virginia report in the second quarter of 2023?	Continuous
-17.572	Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023?	Binary
-22.447	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+CDU)	Binary
-23.448	How many beginners will be in the top 20 of the Point Rankings for Questions Opened in the Last 30 Days on February 28?	Continuous
-39.677	Will there no longer be any authorized COVID therapeutic in the U.S. in 2023?	Binary