skmmcj

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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12.12	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
150.140	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (PVV)	Binary
132.931	How many days will the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in 2023?	Continuous
115.219	How many new forecasters will be in the top 20 of the Beginner Tournament at the end of the tournament?	Continuous
106.662	How many FDIC banks will fail in 2023?	Continuous
94.714	What will the highest monthly count of false English language COVID claims in 2023?	Continuous
86.268	How many tech employees will be laid off in 2023 by April 25th?	Continuous
85.019	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (Aug 26)	Continuous
80.228	How many countries will have approved the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine on June 30, 2023?	Continuous
79.282	How many birds will be affected by avian influenza in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
76.348	How many tornado segments will be reported in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
68.075	Will the 2023 World Chess Championship go to tiebreaks?	Binary
66.633	What will the the total value of property damage (in US dollars) caused by tornados be in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
63.073	How many mpox cases will Virginia report in the second quarter of 2023?	Continuous
62.314	How many claims from Study 4 of the JPSP paper, "Collective transcendence beliefs shape the sacredness of objects: The case of art" will replicate?	Continuous
55.458	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
54.455	When will bivalent booster uptake in Virginia's 65+ population exceed 50%?	Continuous
49.754	When will New York City’s period of consecutive rainy weekends end?	Continuous
49.718	Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?	Binary
48.844	When will the UVA Biocomplexity Institute indicate at least 13 of Virginia's 35 health districts are in a "surge" trajectory?	Continuous
47.353	What will be the total daily Heat Related Illness (HRI) visit counts in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
47.271	How many refugee arrivals will Virginia have in US fiscal year 2023?	Continuous
46.423	What percentage of wastewater treatment plants in Virginia will be in the higher or highest percentile groups for SARS-CoV-2 for the week ending November 26, 2023?	Continuous
43.328	What will be the highest daily Heat Related Illness (HRI) visit count in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
42.483	When will the second Starship test flight occur?	Continuous
42.224	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (Feb 25)	Continuous
41.815	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (March 25)	Continuous
41.410	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (Feb 11)	Continuous
39.909	Which week in late 2023 will have the highest percent of medical visits for Influenza-like Illness in Virginia?	Continuous
39.306	When will the successor to Kevin McCarthy be elected as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives?	Continuous
38.559	When will Tunisia restore overnight public access to water?	Continuous
37.496	What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
37.016	Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel?	Binary
36.691	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024?	Binary
33.222	How much additional aid for Ukraine will the US Congress approve before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
32.980	When will the U.S. CDC recommend an additional updated COVID-19 vaccine booster dose for adults?	Continuous
32.153	How many airborne objects will be shot down in North American airspace in 2023?	Continuous
32.051	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Missouri for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
31.826	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (July 1)	Continuous
31.748	How many people will die in the Sudan conflict in 2023?	Continuous
30.607	How many total seats will the Pheu Thai and Move Forward parties win in the Thailand election?	Continuous
30.189	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (June 17)	Continuous
29.915	Will a mandatory evacuation order be issued for any area of Virginia related to any tropical cyclone in 2023?	Binary
29.656	Will the US Supreme Court declare the Indian Child Welfare Act unconstitutional?	Binary
29.082	What will be the search engine market share of Bing in December of 2023?	Continuous
28.540	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (November 7, 2023)	Binary
28.471	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (0)	Binary
27.842	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
27.627	Fed raises interest rates in June 2023? (No) → S&P 500 closing value on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
27.371	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
26.681	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024?	Binary
26.291	What percentage of the vote will Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Presidential Elections’ runoff?	Continuous
26.234	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (September 2)	Continuous
26.222	How many YouTube views will Center - Day 30 - Return by Yoga With Adriene have at the following dates? (February 14)	Continuous
26.128	What will the Geopolitical Risk index be for 2023?	Continuous
26.118	Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024?	Binary
25.650	Will "Epidemiologists" be included on Virginia's next High Demand Occupation List?	Binary
25.580	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu)	Binary
25.556	Russian Coup or Regime Change before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?	Binary
25.491	How many moves will be played in the first four rounds of the Ding - Nepo FIDE World Chess Championship 2023?	Continuous
25.348	How many individuals will the New York City Department of Homeless Services report as being "in shelter" on May 22nd, 2023?	Continuous
24.932	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Colorado for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
24.398	Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023?	Binary
24.373	Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?	Binary
24.360	Will the Arctic sea ice extent be lower on each day of 2023 compared to that of 2012?	Binary
24.262	Will a major shipping company announce that they are resuming shipments through the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
23.871	What percentage of Virginia adults will be vaccinated against influenza by the week ending December 30, 2023?	Continuous
23.733	When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT?	Continuous
23.439	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (2)	Binary
23.295	Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?	Binary
23.111	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
22.736	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?	Binary
21.856	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Washington for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
21.542	How much money (in US dollars) will GlobalGiving's Morocco Earthquake Relief Fund have raised on September 21, 2023?	Continuous
21.437	In which epidemiological week will the overall national RSV hospitalization rate per 100,000 first equal or exceed 1.0?	Continuous
20.788	Will at least one mink farm worker die from any strain of bird flu in 2023?	Binary
20.533	Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?	Binary
19.709	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (NSC)	Binary
19.485	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (May 6)	Continuous
19.208	Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?	Binary
18.823	Will the main finding of study 1 from “Relational diversity in social portfolios predicts well-being” in PNAS replicate?	Binary
18.619	What will be the total number of fish that Fish Welfare Initiative (FWI) claims to have helped by 2024?	Continuous
18.181	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
18.166	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (1.5)	Binary
18.011	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
17.896	Will the KBW Bank Index record at least a 33% drop from January 3, 2023 levels before May 1, 2023?	Binary
17.657	What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (March 25)	Continuous
17.578	Will Sweden's Loreen win the Eurovision Song Contest 2023?	Binary
17.565	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
17.514	What will be the final value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2023?	Continuous
17.442	Will OpenAI release a "product" after ChatGPT before 2024?	Binary
17.309	Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?	Binary
17.287	When will the U.S. end the public health emergency for COVID-19?	Continuous
16.772	Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?	Binary
16.682	Wagner Group Controls Moscow by July 1, 2023? (No) → Ukraine Controls DNR/LNR on Jan 1, 2024	Binary
16.611	Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024?	Binary
16.529	Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR COVID-like illness (CLI) visits in Virginia during summer 2023 exceed the same peak during the preceding winter 2022-2023?	Binary
16.478	Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023?	Binary
16.328	Will voting in Twitter polls require verification on April 16, 2023?	Binary
15.973	Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023?	Binary
15.655	What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (March 11)	Continuous
15.646	Will the November 2023 Israel-Hamas humanitarian pause be extended?	Binary
15.612	How many YouTube views will Center - Day 30 - Return by Yoga With Adriene have at the following dates? (February 7)	Continuous
15.538	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (May 20)	Continuous
15.447	Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?	Binary
15.386	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (April 22)	Continuous
15.292	Will OpenAI open-source GPT-3 before 2024?	Binary
15.048	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
14.984	What percent of US adults will report having received an updated COVID booster vaccine for the 2023-2024 season on the following dates? (December 30, 2023)	Continuous
14.476	Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023?	Binary
14.254	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
14.106	How many beginners will be in the top 20 of the Point Rankings for Questions Opened in the Last 30 Days on February 28?	Continuous
14.021	Will the 2023 Presidential Elections in Sierra Leone proceed to a runoff?	Binary
13.779	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (March 11)	Continuous
13.748	Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?	Binary
13.695	Will the Palme d'Or, the top prize at the 2023 Cannes Film Festival, be awarded to a film from a European country?	Binary
13.627	Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?	Binary
13.578	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sundar Pichai)	Binary
13.490	Will there be there be a resurgence of influenza in Virginia to "High" or "Very High" level at any point during the rest of the 2022-2023 flu season?	Binary
13.292	When will the procurement and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines in the U.S. be managed by the commercial marketplace?	Continuous
12.984	Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023?	Binary
12.593	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (PvdA-GL)	Binary
12.469	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 600)	Binary
12.320	Will the writers' strike be active on May 12th, 2023?	Binary
12.138	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (June 3)	Continuous
12.060	Will the Federal Open Market Committee raise interest rates at the June 13-14, 2023 meeting?	Binary
11.658	Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?	Binary
11.583	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
11.378	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
11.339	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (July 29)	Continuous
11.297	Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023?	Binary
11.202	Will the OpenAI Tour 2023 plan to visit more than one African destination as of April 10th?	Binary
11.127	Will Apple announce a Mixed Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
10.829	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
10.506	[Short Fuse] Will the total credit extended through all Fed liquidity facilities exceed $500 billion for any week before May 2023?	Binary
10.402	Will top institutions participating in the UK’s global AI Safety Summit make concrete and meaningful commitments to advance AI safety?	Binary
10.399	Will Meta's Voicebox model be leaked by July 1, 2023?	Binary
10.330	Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?	Binary
10.274	Will there no longer be any authorized COVID therapeutic in the U.S. in 2023?	Binary
10.098	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
10.038	Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?	Binary
10.007	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (1)	Binary
9.772	Will NASA re-establish communications with Voyager 1 before 1 Jan 2024?	Binary
9.744	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2024)	Binary
9.582	Will OpenAI release a stateful API to GPT-4 before 2024?	Binary
9.548	Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?	Binary
9.541	Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?	Binary
9.504	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (0.5)	Binary
9.081	Will Elizabeth Holmes be in prison on May 31, 2023?	Binary
8.974	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (CDA)	Binary
8.960	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
8.852	Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024?	Binary
8.832	Will Russia assume the presidency of the UN Security Council on April 1, 2023?	Binary
8.789	Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2024)	Binary
8.678	Will OpenAI report having ≥99% uptime for ChatGPT and the OpenAI API in December 2023?	Binary
8.636	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
8.554	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?	Binary
8.501	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
8.441	Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?	Binary
8.416	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
8.403	Will the US FDA authorize a new vaccine targeting COVID-19 in 2023?	Binary
8.359	Will the EU Parliament endorse a negotiating mandate for the AI Act before June 16, 2023?	Binary
8.343	Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?	Binary
8.300	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024?	Binary
8.260	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
8.207	What will be the total finishing time for the 2023 Boston Marathon winners (male and female combined)?	Continuous
8.157	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Jan-2024)	Continuous
8.057	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mansur Yavaş)	Binary
7.904	How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (1)	Binary
7.783	Short Fuse: Will the 'Titan' submersible be recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22?	Binary
7.730	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (1)	Binary
7.729	Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?	Binary
7.704	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
7.668	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (2)	Binary
7.625	Will the Israeli High Court uphold the "reasonableness" law?	Binary
7.535	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
7.459	Will the ban on imports of Apple watches with blood oxygen sensors take effect before December 27, 2023?	Binary
7.458	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?	Binary
7.181	Will Italy lose its investment-grade credit rating in May 2023?	Binary
7.157	Will large language models become the state of the art for machine translation in 2023?	Binary
7.127	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Dec-23)	Continuous
7.107	Will Amritpal Singh be in Indian custody before April 21, 2023?	Binary
6.997	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
6.894	Trump participates in first debate? (No) → Trump Polling Change Two Weeks After Debate?	Continuous
6.785	Will Ding Liren win the 2023 World Chess Championship?	Binary
6.785	Will a country other than the United States shoot down a high-altitude object before the end of February, 2023?	Binary
6.674	Will Donald Trump participate in the 2nd Republican primary debate?	Binary
6.479	Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023?	Binary
6.312	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
6.204	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (3)	Binary
6.191	Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?	Binary
6.191	What percent of children under 8 months of age will surveyed parents report having received nirsevimab on the following dates? (December 30, 2023)	Continuous
6.174	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (0)	Binary
6.103	Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?	Binary
6.009	Will the UK Labour Party have a polling lead of at least 10% on 1 January 2024?	Binary
5.959	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Dec-2023)	Continuous
5.865	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)	Binary
5.807	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
5.657	Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?	Binary
5.616	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
5.543	Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023?	Binary
5.530	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
5.467	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
5.425	Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024?	Binary
5.423	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Massachusetts for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
5.423	Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?	Binary
5.300	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (6)	Binary
5.284	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
5.278	Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024?	Binary
5.271	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (D66)	Binary
5.203	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
5.182	Will Starship achieve liftoff before Monday, May 1st, 2023?	Binary
5.132	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (BBB)	Binary
5.128	How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (0)	Binary
5.064	Will Sarah Bernstein or Chetna Maroo win the 2023 Booker Prize?	Binary
5.020	Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions?	Binary
4.961	Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?	Binary
4.892	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
4.848	Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024?	Binary
4.821	What will be the worldwide 7-day rolling average of confirmed mpox cases for June 30, 2023?	Continuous
4.782	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
4.770	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
4.561	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
4.496	Will there be a Twitter outage resulting in no tweets for more than 60 minutes before July 1, 2023?	Binary
4.469	Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
4.375	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Dario Amodei)	Binary
4.353	Will Apple announce a Virtual Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
4.188	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
4.100	Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?	Binary
3.983	When will the U.S. CDC stop requiring line-level (patient-level) COVID-19 case data from states?	Continuous
3.967	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
3.939	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
3.938	Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?	Binary
3.872	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
3.849	Will Google Bard be available to the public on March 5th, 2023?	Binary
3.829	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
3.795	Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?	Binary
3.723	Will Trump lose in the E. Jean Carroll sexual assault case?	Binary
3.696	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 300)	Binary
3.639	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in January 2023?	Continuous
3.449	Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2024)	Binary
3.446	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
3.363	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (5)	Binary
3.357	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
3.245	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
3.145	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on September 30, 2023?	Continuous
3.091	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
2.981	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
2.866	Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?	Binary
2.856	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
2.757	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sam Altman)	Binary
2.749	Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?	Binary
2.715	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 100)	Binary
2.684	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Mark Zuckerberg)	Binary
2.590	Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?	Binary
2.573	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
2.523	Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024?	Binary
2.520	Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024?	Binary
2.282	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Demis Hassabis)	Binary
2.233	Will Ukraine be confirmed to have used chemical weapons against Russian forces by January 1, 2024?	Binary
2.158	Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
1.958	Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?	Binary
1.842	Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?	Binary
1.782	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (VVD)	Binary
1.761	Will the US employment-population ratio fall below the COVID-19 low (51.3%) in any month in the following years, due to AI or otherwise? (2023)	Binary
1.696	How many coronation medals will be awarded as part of King Charles III coronation?	Continuous
1.628	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Poland 2050)	Binary
1.594	Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?	Binary
1.541	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Agreement)	Binary
1.526	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Polish Coalition)	Binary
1.524	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Kukiz'15)	Binary
1.523	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)	Binary
1.521	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
1.515	Will Apple release a 15-inch MacBook Air at WWDC on June 5-9, 2023?	Binary
1.502	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Democratic Left)	Binary
1.467	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (New Left)	Binary
1.453	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Confederation)	Binary
1.340	Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?	Binary
1.315	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
1.274	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce)	Binary
1.268	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Meral Akşener)	Binary
1.225	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Illinois for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
1.207	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
1.144	What rating will Bethesda's video game Starfield have on Steam two weeks after release?	Continuous
1.104	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ahmet Davutoğlu)	Binary
1.034	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
0.974	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan)	Binary
0.936	Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023?	Binary
0.879	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (July 15)	Continuous
0.853	Will the Chinese team at the 64th International Math Olympiad be the top ranked team again?	Binary
0.677	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Sinan Oğan)	Binary
0.660	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
0.649	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Süleyman Soylu)	Binary
0.639	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Pervin Buldan)	Binary
0.635	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ali Babacan)	Binary
0.635	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Devlet Bahçeli)	Binary
0.626	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mustafa Sarıgül)	Binary
0.611	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Temel Karamollaoğlu)	Binary
0.609	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Fatih Erbakan)	Binary
0.594	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Gültekin Uysal)	Binary
0.580	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023?	Binary
0.578	What percentage of the vote will presidential candidate candidate Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Open Primaries Elections?	Continuous
0.578	Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days?	Binary
0.558	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Tansu Çiller)	Binary
0.557	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Doğu Perinçek)	Binary
0.532	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Abdullah Gül)	Binary
0.443	Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
0.409	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
0.353	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
0.272	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
0.244	Will USDC restore its peg before May 1, 2023?	Binary
0.244	Will the German Train Drivers' Union (GDL) go on strike again before January 1, 2024?	Binary
0.195	Will George Weah win re-election in the 2023 Liberian General Election?	Binary
0.104	Will internationally recognized media outlets report that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun before June 21, 2023?	Binary
0.075	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
0.044	Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-0.516	Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?	Binary
-0.963	Will the Chandrayaan-3 lander soft-land on the moon?	Binary
-1.077	When will the WHO COVID-19 PHEIC expire?	Continuous
-1.256	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (Albert Ondo Ossa)	Binary
-1.434	Will the US Congress approve additional aid for Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
-1.595	Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?	Binary
-1.724	Will either the NBA Finals or the Stanley Cup Finals in 2023 go to a game 7?	Binary
-1.886	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
-2.095	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?	Binary
-2.137	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (4)	Binary
-2.197	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
-2.210	Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024?	Binary
-2.263	Will either of last year's disc golf champions, Kristin Tattar or Calvin Heimburg, win 1st place in Jonesboro again this year?	Binary
-2.266	How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (2)	Binary
-2.404	Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?	Binary
-2.583	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (7)	Binary
-2.618	How many goals will be scored in total across all four Champions League semifinal games in the 2022/23 season?	Continuous
-3.037	2023 World Chess Championship tiebreaks? (Yes) → Ding Liren 2023 World Chess Champion?	Binary
-3.513	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (President Ali Bongo Ondimba)	Binary
-3.715	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (General Brice Oligui Nguema)	Binary
-4.545	Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?	Binary
-5.263	Will a nearly continuous human chain stretch across the length of the Forth and Clyde Canal on 14 October 2023?	Binary
-5.436	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (Aug 12)	Continuous
-5.651	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Civic Platform)	Binary
-7.882	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
-8.179	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Law and Justice (PiS))	Binary
-8.542	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (August 19)	Continuous
-10.748	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
-11.061	Will there be more Antarctic sea ice on March 7, 2023 than there was on March 7, 2022?	Binary
-11.400	Will OpenAI reduce the cost of the GPT-4 API by at least 2/3 (<=$0.01/1k prompt tokens for 8k context) before 2024?	Binary
-11.605	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
-11.680	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-12.666	Will the author who wins the 2023 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction be a first-time finalist?	Binary
-12.930	Which week in late 2023 will influenza intensity levels first be categorized as moderate in at least one of Virginia's regions in the 2023-24 flu season?	Continuous
-13.059	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?	Binary
-14.247	How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (3)	Binary
-14.370	Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?	Binary
-14.967	Will a bird flu outbreak among minks on an additional mink farm result in the minks being culled before 2024?	Binary
-15.529	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
-19.948	Will SpaceX receive a launch license for Starship from the FAA before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
-20.866	How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives to replace Kevin McCarthy?	Continuous
-21.648	[Short Fuse] How many attendees will be at the next Metaculus Meetup? (February 2023)	Continuous
-24.169	Will the maiden flight of the H3 Launch Vehicle carrying ALOS-3 launch successfully and on time?	Binary
-27.469	How many days will any region in Virginia experience coastal flood, high wind, hurricane, or tropical storm in 2023?	Continuous
-28.020	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?	Binary
-29.002	Will the March seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States be lower than 3.6%?	Binary
-51.943	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (April 8)	Continuous
-69.069	What will be the effective number of political parties in the Netherlands parliament following the 2023 election?	Continuous