PhilippSchoenegger

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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5.034	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
50.484	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
44.264	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
43.193	When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT?	Continuous
39.917	How many new businesses will be formed in the US in 2023?	Continuous
38.446	Erdoğan wins 2023 Turkish Presidential Election? (Yes) → Swedish NATO Membership by 2024?	Binary
38.263	Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?	Binary
34.011	What will be the size of the 2024 EU Budget?	Continuous
30.915	Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2023?	Binary
30.679	How many FDIC banks will fail in 2023?	Continuous
29.059	Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?	Binary
27.582	Will the KBW Bank Index record at least a 33% drop from January 3, 2023 levels before May 1, 2023?	Binary
25.227	How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (June 2023)	Continuous
25.217	When will the second Starship test flight occur?	Continuous
24.670	What percentage of the vote will presidential candidate candidate Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Open Primaries Elections?	Continuous
24.405	Will US sovereign debt be downgraded in 2023?	Binary
23.016	Will Italy lose its investment-grade credit rating in May 2023?	Binary
22.648	[Short Fuse] Will the total credit extended through all Fed liquidity facilities exceed $500 billion for any week before May 2023?	Binary
22.597	Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List?	Binary
22.212	Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?	Binary
21.445	Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?	Binary
20.533	What will be the search engine market share of Bing in December of 2023?	Continuous
19.917	Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
19.749	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sundar Pichai)	Binary
19.736	Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?	Binary
18.965	Will at least one mink farm worker die from any strain of bird flu in 2023?	Binary
18.705	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
18.604	Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023?	Binary
18.304	When will Tunisia restore overnight public access to water?	Continuous
18.185	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
17.327	Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections?	Binary
16.029	Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023?	Binary
15.984	Will OpenAI open-source GPT-3 before 2024?	Binary
15.958	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu)	Binary
14.823	Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?	Binary
14.820	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
14.218	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024?	Binary
13.978	Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?	Binary
13.651	Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023?	Binary
13.650	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
12.909	How many total seats will the Pheu Thai and Move Forward parties win in the Thailand election?	Continuous
12.642	Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?	Binary
12.533	Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023?	Binary
12.172	Will OpenAI release a "product" after ChatGPT before 2024?	Binary
12.133	Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?	Binary
12.031	Will there be a Twitter outage resulting in no tweets for more than 60 minutes before July 1, 2023?	Binary
12.001	Will the EU Parliament endorse a negotiating mandate for the AI Act before June 16, 2023?	Binary
11.395	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Kate Forbes)	Binary
11.368	Will the Arctic sea ice extent be lower on each day of 2023 compared to that of 2012?	Binary
10.855	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024?	Binary
10.691	Will Luisa González receive the most votes in the first round of the Ecuadorian election?	Binary
10.663	What percentage of the possession will the winning team have in the Women's World Cup Final?	Continuous
10.312	Will the majority of OpenAI's Board of Directors leave the Board before December 1, 2023?	Binary
9.959	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
9.864	Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?	Binary
9.605	Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?	Binary
9.491	Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023?	Binary
9.379	Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023?	Binary
9.326	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Ash Regan)	Binary
9.181	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on September 30, 2023?	Continuous
9.000	Will Trump lose in the E. Jean Carroll sexual assault case?	Binary
8.667	Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?	Binary
8.608	Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?	Binary
8.417	Will Sweden's Loreen win the Eurovision Song Contest 2023?	Binary
8.093	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
8.030	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mansur Yavaş)	Binary
7.696	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023?	Binary
7.484	Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?	Binary
7.358	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Dario Amodei)	Binary
7.314	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Atiku Abubakar)	Binary
7.173	Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023?	Binary
7.135	Will the US Supreme Court declare the Indian Child Welfare Act unconstitutional?	Binary
6.796	Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days?	Binary
6.554	Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024?	Binary
6.440	What will the price of November 2023 Dutch TTF natural gas futures (in Euros per megawatt-hour) be on September 29, 2023?	Continuous
6.430	Will copper prices reach an all-time-high in 2023?	Binary
6.345	Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?	Binary
6.232	Trump participates in first debate? (No) → Trump Polling Change Two Weeks After Debate?	Continuous
6.206	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
6.146	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?	Binary
6.129	Will Apple announce a Mixed Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
5.967	Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?	Binary
5.931	Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023?	Binary
5.742	Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?	Binary
5.600	Will there no longer be any authorized COVID therapeutic in the U.S. in 2023?	Binary
5.511	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Tokmak railway station on January 1, 2024?	Binary
4.884	Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning?	Binary
4.870	Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024?	Binary
4.817	Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
4.767	Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden’s Ukraine dealings before September 1st?	Binary
4.649	Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?	Binary
4.460	Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?	Binary
4.433	Will internationally recognized media outlets report that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun before June 21, 2023?	Binary
4.327	Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?	Binary
4.217	Will Ukraine be confirmed to have used chemical weapons against Russian forces by January 1, 2024?	Binary
4.034	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
3.865	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Demis Hassabis)	Binary
3.850	Will there be more than 10 ministerial resignations in Rishi Sunak’s government before 2024?	Binary
3.731	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
3.676	Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?	Binary
3.599	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?	Binary
3.540	Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023?	Binary
3.517	Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?	Binary
3.476	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
3.464	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Denver Nuggets)	Binary
3.432	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
3.380	Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?	Binary
3.353	Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?	Binary
3.234	Will ChatGPT have multiple tiers of capability before 2024?	Binary
3.200	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
3.113	Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023?	Binary
3.098	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Poland 2050)	Binary
2.981	Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?	Binary
2.847	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Agreement)	Binary
2.837	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Kukiz'15)	Binary
2.808	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Democratic Left)	Binary
2.806	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Polish Coalition)	Binary
2.799	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Confederation)	Binary
2.764	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Los Angeles Lakers)	Binary
2.755	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sam Altman)	Binary
2.722	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (New Left)	Binary
2.697	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)	Binary
2.595	What will be the value of bilateral US-Taiwan trade in 2023?	Continuous
2.345	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?	Binary
2.338	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (All Other Teams Not Listed)	Binary
2.310	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
2.297	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?	Binary
2.275	Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024?	Binary
2.218	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
2.200	Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023?	Binary
2.137	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
2.127	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
2.123	Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?	Binary
2.115	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Mark Zuckerberg)	Binary
2.079	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
2.074	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
2.071	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
2.058	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
2.024	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
1.977	Will the 2023 Presidential Elections in Sierra Leone proceed to a runoff?	Binary
1.964	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Nancy Mace (R))	Binary
1.895	Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?	Binary
1.867	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
1.865	Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
1.709	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)	Binary
1.627	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Boston Celtics)	Binary
1.551	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Los Angeles Clippers)	Binary
1.485	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
1.419	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
1.378	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Rabiu Kwankwaso)	Binary
1.361	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
1.345	Will there be a confirmed case of Marburg virus in Algeria by July 28th?	Binary
1.337	Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024?	Binary
1.313	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
1.283	Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?	Binary
1.265	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce)	Binary
1.260	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (Vox)	Binary
1.125	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (Albert Ondo Ossa)	Binary
1.060	Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?	Binary
1.022	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ahmet Davutoğlu)	Binary
1.015	Will F-22 or F-35 fighter jets be pledged to Ukraine by January 1, 2024?	Binary
0.964	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
0.955	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (Podemos)	Binary
0.890	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan)	Binary
0.866	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
0.866	Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023?	Binary
0.843	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
0.797	Will Israel and Hamas conduct a prisoner exchange involving ≥20 Israelis and ≥20 Palestinians in 2023?	Binary
0.682	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ali Babacan)	Binary
0.674	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Süleyman Soylu)	Binary
0.650	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mustafa Sarıgül)	Binary
0.630	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Devlet Bahçeli)	Binary
0.625	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Pervin Buldan)	Binary
0.620	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Meral Akşener)	Binary
0.613	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Abdullah Gül)	Binary
0.589	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Gültekin Uysal)	Binary
0.589	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Fatih Erbakan)	Binary
0.559	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Tansu Çiller)	Binary
0.558	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (New York Knicks)	Binary
0.553	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (New Jersey Devils)	Binary
0.518	Will USDC restore its peg before May 1, 2023?	Binary
0.460	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Cole (R))	Binary
0.399	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024?	Binary
0.393	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Sinan Oğan)	Binary
0.393	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Sacramento Kings)	Binary
0.374	ECOWAS Intervention Before August 12, 2023? (No) → Mohamed Bazoum in Power By August 31, 2023?	Binary
0.347	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Temel Karamollaoğlu)	Binary
0.335	[Short Fuse] Will Credit Suisse experience any of the following scenarios before May 2023?	Binary
0.329	Will Virgin Orbit file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
0.317	Will the US FDA authorize a new vaccine targeting COVID-19 in 2023?	Binary
0.307	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Cleveland Cavaliers)	Binary
0.304	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Dallas Stars)	Binary
0.301	Will the statutory debt limit be increased or suspended for at least 30 days in the United States before 2024?	Binary
0.290	Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?	Binary
0.289	Will countries commit at least 100 US/German-made modern main battle tanks to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
0.283	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023?	Binary
0.264	Will the President of Zimbabwe at the end of 2023 represent the ZANU-PF party?	Binary
0.260	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Doğu Perinçek)	Binary
0.246	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
0.232	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Law and Justice (PiS))	Binary
0.224	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Colombia)	Binary
0.160	Will the suspected Chinese surveillance balloon be on the ground before February 11th, 2023?	Binary
0.090	Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023?	Binary
0.068	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Denmark)	Binary
0.067	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (All other teams)	Binary
0.057	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Norway)	Binary
0.039	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (NY Rangers)	Binary
0.035	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Memphis Grizzlies)	Binary
0.033	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Nigeria)	Binary
0.023	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Jamaica)	Binary
0.023	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Switzerland)	Binary
0.001	Will Apple announce a Virtual Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
0.000	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (South Korea)	Binary
-0.007	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (South Africa)	Binary
-0.028	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Morocco)	Binary
-0.052	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
-0.212	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
-0.244	Debt Limit Increased or Suspended in 2023? (Yes) → U.S. Debt Default Before 2024?	Binary
-0.515	Will the winner of stage 9 of the 2023 Tour De France also hold the yellow jersey at the end of the stage?	Binary
-0.667	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
-0.749	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (President Ali Bongo Ondimba)	Binary
-0.921	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Civic Platform)	Binary
-1.121	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
-1.498	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (General Brice Oligui Nguema)	Binary
-1.561	Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?	Binary
-1.686	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Humza Yusaf)	Binary
-1.693	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Florida Panthers)	Binary
-1.743	When will Joe Biden issue his third veto?	Continuous
-3.437	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-4.027	Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?	Binary
-4.902	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (PSOE)	Binary
-4.956	Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?	Binary
-6.248	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (People's Party (PP))	Binary
-6.818	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
-7.524	Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?	Binary
-7.658	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
-8.522	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-9.300	Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?	Binary
-9.851	How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (March 2023)	Continuous
-10.559	What will the Geopolitical Risk index be for 2023?	Continuous
-12.031	Will the UK Labour Party have a polling lead of at least 10% on 1 January 2024?	Binary
-12.092	How much additional aid for Ukraine will the US Congress approve before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
-12.382	How much money (in US dollars) will GlobalGiving's Morocco Earthquake Relief Fund have raised on September 21, 2023?	Continuous
-14.311	Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?	Binary
-15.001	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Bola Tinubu)	Binary
-19.611	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Peter Obi)	Binary
-25.577	How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (December 2023)	Continuous
-28.683	Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024?	Binary
-33.534	How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (September 2023)	Continuous
-37.161	Will the total number of people staying in NYC homeless shelters exceed 100,000 for any day of 2023?	Binary