nextbigfuture

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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3.026	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
58.856	Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?	Binary
34.772	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Spain)	Binary
32.152	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Sergio Massa)	Binary
26.001	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
25.772	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Javier Milei)	Binary
21.657	Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?	Binary
20.836	Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?	Binary
18.447	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Boston Celtics)	Binary
18.067	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
17.062	Will either the NBA Finals or the Stanley Cup Finals in 2023 go to a game 7?	Binary
16.681	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
16.046	Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023?	Binary
15.977	What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) on December 30, 2023?	Continuous
15.160	[Short Fuse] How many Democrats will vote to retain Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House? (0)	Binary
14.304	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024?	Binary
13.326	Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?	Binary
12.932	Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 27th, 2023?	Binary
12.866	[Short Fuse] How many Democrats will vote to retain Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House? (5 or more)	Binary
12.808	Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?	Binary
12.480	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Bola Tinubu)	Binary
12.030	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (All Other Teams Not Listed)	Binary
11.726	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Emmer (R))	Binary
11.690	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Peter Obi)	Binary
11.561	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Released by captor)	Continuous
11.152	Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?	Binary
10.749	Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?	Binary
10.540	Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
10.243	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
10.232	Will the majority of OpenAI's Board of Directors leave the Board before December 1, 2023?	Binary
10.216	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (England)	Binary
9.691	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023?	Binary
9.482	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?	Binary
8.990	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
8.811	Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?	Binary
8.758	Will NASA re-establish communications with Voyager 1 before 1 Jan 2024?	Binary
8.564	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
8.453	Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024?	Binary
8.304	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?	Binary
8.249	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Florida Panthers)	Binary
8.014	Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?	Binary
7.917	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
7.863	Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024?	Binary
7.673	Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024?	Binary
7.632	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Carolina Hurricanes)	Binary
7.558	Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024?	Binary
7.359	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Dec-2023)	Continuous
7.317	Will the US Housing Market crash in 2023?	Binary
7.071	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Dallas Stars)	Binary
7.054	Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?	Binary
7.040	Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
6.788	Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning?	Binary
6.752	Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?	Binary
6.599	How many people will die in the Sudan conflict in 2023?	Continuous
6.592	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
6.481	Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024?	Binary
6.464	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu)	Binary
6.417	Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?	Binary
6.411	US Government Shutdown Before 2024? (No) → Johnson Speaker until 2024?	Binary
6.350	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
6.336	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
6.187	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
6.154	Will a majority of voters approve Venezuela's referendum on incorporating Guayana Esequiba into Venezuela?	Binary
6.153	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Los Angeles Lakers)	Binary
6.069	Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?	Binary
6.030	Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
5.969	[Short Fuse] How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress?	Continuous
5.957	Will OpenAI report having ≥99% uptime for ChatGPT and the OpenAI API in December 2023?	Binary
5.956	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
5.877	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
5.766	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
5.658	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
5.440	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
5.333	Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?	Binary
5.279	Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?	Binary
5.222	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
5.220	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 600)	Binary
5.206	Will a major shipping company announce that they are resuming shipments through the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
5.109	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Sweden)	Binary
5.065	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
5.029	Short Fuse: Will the 'Titan' submersible be recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22?	Binary
4.975	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
4.834	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Atiku Abubakar)	Binary
4.698	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Australia)	Binary
4.614	Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?	Binary
4.567	Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?	Binary
4.525	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Philadelphia 76ers)	Binary
4.267	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Patricia Bullrich)	Binary
4.152	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Rescued or escaped)	Continuous
4.149	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
3.821	Will Donald Trump participate in the 2nd Republican primary debate?	Binary
3.705	Will internationally recognized media outlets report that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun before June 21, 2023?	Binary
3.701	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?	Binary
3.581	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (France)	Binary
3.497	Will the writers' strike be active on May 12th, 2023?	Binary
3.463	Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023?	Binary
3.401	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
3.331	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (November 7, 2023)	Binary
3.328	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
3.293	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Myriam Bregman)	Binary
3.251	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Juan Schiaretti)	Binary
3.176	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Germany)	Binary
3.106	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 100)	Binary
3.095	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
3.047	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
2.952	Will the Nigerian Presidential Election on February 25th go to a run-off vote?	Binary
2.949	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Jan-2024)	Continuous
2.870	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
2.820	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
2.812	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)	Binary
2.777	Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024?	Binary
2.714	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Nancy Mace (R))	Binary
2.661	Will a US spot Ethereum ETF be approved in 2023?	Binary
2.536	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
2.527	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Japan)	Binary
2.515	Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?	Binary
2.450	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Los Angeles Clippers)	Binary
2.432	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Toronto Maple Leafs)	Binary
2.428	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Netherlands)	Binary
2.417	What will the Geopolitical Risk index be for 2023?	Continuous
2.323	Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2023?	Binary
2.293	Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023?	Binary
2.168	Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?	Binary
2.114	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 300)	Binary
2.042	Will copper prices reach an all-time-high in 2023?	Binary
2.025	Will the US FDA authorize a new vaccine targeting COVID-19 in 2023?	Binary
1.903	Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?	Binary
1.888	Will the maiden flight of the H3 Launch Vehicle carrying ALOS-3 launch successfully and on time?	Binary
1.869	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Tokmak railway station on January 1, 2024?	Binary
1.842	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024?	Binary
1.803	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (Albert Ondo Ossa)	Binary
1.735	Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?	Binary
1.725	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
1.705	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Edmonton Oilers)	Binary
1.704	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
1.674	[Short Fuse] How many Democrats will vote to retain Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House? (4)	Binary
1.670	Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
1.660	Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023?	Binary
1.633	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Austin Scott (R))	Binary
1.622	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (United States)	Binary
1.581	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Phoenix Suns)	Binary
1.550	Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?	Binary
1.542	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
1.492	Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023?	Binary
1.425	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
1.386	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Golden State Warriors)	Binary
1.316	Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions?	Binary
1.306	Will the Palestinian Authority declare itself bankrupt before the end of 2023?	Binary
1.296	Will F-22 or F-35 fighter jets be pledged to Ukraine by January 1, 2024?	Binary
1.291	Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?	Binary
1.205	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
1.187	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (General Brice Oligui Nguema)	Binary
1.182	Will the November 2023 Israel-Hamas humanitarian pause be extended?	Binary
1.127	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Memphis Grizzlies)	Binary
1.118	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
1.091	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
1.057	Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024?	Binary
1.055	[Short Fuse] How many Democrats will vote to retain Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House? (1)	Binary
1.051	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2024)	Binary
1.047	Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024?	Binary
1.024	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (All other teams)	Binary
0.989	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (President Ali Bongo Ondimba)	Binary
0.908	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (New York Knicks)	Binary
0.864	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Brian Fitzpatrick (R))	Binary
0.773	[Short Fuse] How many Democrats will vote to retain Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House? (3)	Binary
0.745	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Colombia)	Binary
0.732	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Brazil)	Binary
0.715	Will OpenAI release a "product" after ChatGPT before 2024?	Binary
0.666	How far from the bow of the Titanic will the submersible 'Titan' be located?	Continuous
0.605	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Philippines)	Binary
0.604	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (New Jersey Devils)	Binary
0.578	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
0.522	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Norway)	Binary
0.504	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Denmark)	Binary
0.423	Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?	Binary
0.418	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Jamaica)	Binary
0.378	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Nigeria)	Binary
0.365	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Boston Bruins)	Binary
0.354	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Lee Zeldin (R))	Binary
0.353	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Cole (R))	Binary
0.344	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Morocco)	Binary
0.336	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023?	Binary
0.324	Will Virgin Orbit file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
0.307	What will be the official death count for the 2023 Hawai'i wildfires as of January 1, 2024?	Continuous
0.305	Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
0.277	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (South Korea)	Binary
0.274	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (South Africa)	Binary
0.260	Will countries commit at least 100 US/German-made modern main battle tanks to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
0.254	Will the Chandrayaan-3 lander soft-land on the moon?	Binary
0.247	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Switzerland)	Binary
0.240	Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024?	Binary
0.224	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Italy)	Binary
0.199	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Argentina)	Binary
0.199	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Canada)	Binary
0.168	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (China)	Binary
0.161	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Portugal)	Binary
0.139	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Laphonza Butler (D))	Binary
0.118	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (New Zealand)	Binary
0.105	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Colorado Avalanche)	Binary
0.104	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (NY Rangers)	Binary
0.087	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Haiti)	Binary
0.061	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mansur Yavaş)	Binary
0.059	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Panama)	Binary
0.038	How many beginners will be in the top 20 of the Point Rankings for Questions Opened in the Last 30 Days on February 28?	Continuous
0.024	[Short Fuse] Will Credit Suisse experience any of the following scenarios before May 2023?	Binary
0.018	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Sec. of State Shirley Weber (D))	Binary
0.015	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Maxine Waters (D))	Binary
0.015	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Mayor Karen Bass (D))	Binary
0.015	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Angela Glover Blackwell (D))	Binary
0.014	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Adam Schiff (D))	Binary
0.011	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D))	Binary
0.009	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Justice Leondra Kruger (D))	Binary
0.009	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Mayor London Breed (D))	Binary
0.008	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Katie Porter (D))	Binary
0.006	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Lateefah Simon (D))	Binary
0.006	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Holly Mitchell (D))	Binary
0.005	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Barbara Lee (D))	Binary
0.005	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Malia Cohen (D))	Binary
0.005	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)	Binary
0.005	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Former Senator Barbara Boxer (D))	Binary
0.004	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Meral Akşener)	Binary
0.004	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Pervin Buldan)	Binary
0.004	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Devlet Bahçeli)	Binary
0.004	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Süleyman Soylu)	Binary
0.004	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mustafa Sarıgül)	Binary
0.004	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Temel Karamollaoğlu)	Binary
0.004	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Fatih Erbakan)	Binary
0.004	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Gültekin Uysal)	Binary
0.003	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Tansu Çiller)	Binary
0.003	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Abdullah Gül)	Binary
0.003	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Doğu Perinçek)	Binary
0.003	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce)	Binary
0.003	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ahmet Davutoğlu)	Binary
0.003	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan)	Binary
0.003	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Sinan Oğan)	Binary
0.003	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ali Babacan)	Binary
0.000	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Hunter Biden (D))	Binary
0.000	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (LA Kings)	Binary
-0.239	When will the second Starship test flight occur?	Continuous
-0.264	Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?	Binary
-0.315	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Cleveland Cavaliers)	Binary
-0.600	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Rabiu Kwankwaso)	Binary
-0.782	Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-0.865	[Short Fuse] How many Democrats will vote to retain Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House? (2)	Binary
-0.929	Will year-on-year core inflation in the United States exceed 6% for the year ending in December 2022?	Binary
-1.185	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
-1.298	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?	Binary
-1.504	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Sacramento Kings)	Binary
-1.827	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?	Binary
-1.952	Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight?	Binary
-1.965	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Milwaukee Bucks)	Binary
-2.697	Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023?	Binary
-2.701	Will ChatGPT have multiple tiers of capability before 2024?	Binary
-5.437	Will Ukraine be confirmed to have used chemical weapons against Russian forces by January 1, 2024?	Binary
-6.056	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Mike Johnson (R))	Binary
-6.753	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in January 2023?	Continuous
-11.020	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
-11.513	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?	Binary
-16.881	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?	Binary
-19.110	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
-19.110	What will be the search engine market share of Bing in December of 2023?	Continuous
-36.841	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Vegas Golden Knights)	Binary
-54.359	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
-75.562	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Denver Nuggets)	Binary