Jgalt

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

7.549	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
82.669	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
81.676	How much additional aid for Ukraine will the US Congress approve before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
62.389	How many countries will have approved the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine on June 30, 2023?	Continuous
60.924	Will Sweden's Loreen win the Eurovision Song Contest 2023?	Binary
59.532	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Oct-2023)	Continuous
56.131	Will a nearly continuous human chain stretch across the length of the Forth and Clyde Canal on 14 October 2023?	Binary
55.584	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Released by captor)	Continuous
51.899	How many FDIC banks will fail in 2023?	Continuous
49.764	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Dec-23)	Continuous
45.361	Will the US Supreme Court issue a decision on hearing the case about presidential immunity before January 1, 2024?	Binary
45.308	Will Biden's 538 approval rating be above the following values on the following days? (2023 Dec 31st, ≥ 40%)	Binary
39.147	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Mike Johnson (R))	Binary
33.918	Will the KBW Bank Index record at least a 33% drop from January 3, 2023 levels before May 1, 2023?	Binary
32.866	Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023?	Binary
31.956	When will the second Starship test flight occur?	Continuous
30.859	When will the successor to Kevin McCarthy be elected as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives?	Continuous
30.080	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on September 30, 2023?	Continuous
29.844	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Dec-2023)	Continuous
29.656	Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023?	Binary
29.566	What will the price of November 2023 Dutch TTF natural gas futures (in Euros per megawatt-hour) be on September 29, 2023?	Continuous
29.492	When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT?	Continuous
27.925	Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?	Binary
27.800	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024?	Binary
26.743	What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) on December 30, 2023?	Continuous
26.126	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
25.617	How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives to replace Kevin McCarthy?	Continuous
25.539	Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?	Binary
25.478	Will the 2023 Presidential Elections in Sierra Leone proceed to a runoff?	Binary
24.694	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Rescued or escaped)	Continuous
23.678	How many airborne objects will be shot down in North American airspace in 2023?	Continuous
22.562	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
22.371	When will New York City’s period of consecutive rainy weekends end?	Continuous
21.737	Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?	Binary
21.216	When will the next volcanic eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula in Iceland begin?	Continuous
21.168	When will Tunisia restore overnight public access to water?	Continuous
20.996	Will US sovereign debt be downgraded in 2023?	Binary
20.829	Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?	Binary
19.928	Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?	Binary
19.632	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
19.422	Will Apple announce a Virtual Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
19.334	Will Representative George Santos be expelled from the US. House of Representatives before January 1, 2024?	Binary
19.223	Will SpaceX receive a launch license for Starship from the FAA before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
19.070	Will Trump lose in the E. Jean Carroll sexual assault case?	Binary
18.593	Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2023?	Binary
18.384	Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?	Binary
17.856	How many total seats will the Pheu Thai and Move Forward parties win in the Thailand election?	Continuous
17.427	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023?	Binary
17.326	Will the UK Labour Party have a polling lead of at least 10% on 1 January 2024?	Binary
17.314	Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?	Binary
17.100	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 600)	Binary
16.878	Will there be an additional Russian IPO on the MICEX in 2023?	Binary
16.697	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sundar Pichai)	Binary
16.432	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Nov-2023)	Continuous
15.995	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
15.843	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Sergio Massa)	Binary
15.606	Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections?	Binary
15.561	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Laphonza Butler (D))	Binary
15.356	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
15.329	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024?	Binary
14.378	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
14.160	Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
14.141	Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?	Binary
13.844	Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024?	Binary
13.492	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
13.284	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Javier Milei)	Binary
13.125	Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?	Binary
12.321	Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?	Binary
12.207	Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?	Binary
12.097	What percentage of the possession will the winning team have in the Women's World Cup Final?	Continuous
11.143	Will a major shipping company announce that they are resuming shipments through the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
10.934	Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?	Binary
10.834	Will Apple announce a Mixed Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
10.768	Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?	Binary
10.627	Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024?	Binary
10.511	Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?	Binary
10.351	What percentage of the vote will presidential candidate candidate Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Open Primaries Elections?	Continuous
10.266	Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?	Binary
10.257	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
10.251	Will any additional Republican candidates for president drop out before 2024?	Binary
10.056	Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023?	Binary
9.928	Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023?	Binary
9.869	Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024?	Binary
9.737	Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024?	Binary
9.709	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Dec-23)	Continuous
9.543	Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?	Binary
9.422	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
9.374	Will the majority of OpenAI's Board of Directors leave the Board before December 1, 2023?	Binary
9.276	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Jan-2024)	Continuous
9.169	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
9.076	Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?	Binary
9.044	Short Fuse: Will the 'Titan' submersible be recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22?	Binary
8.863	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?	Binary
8.685	Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?	Binary
8.486	Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?	Binary
8.219	Will the "Limit, Save, Grow Act" pass the US House of Representatives before May 2023?	Binary
8.087	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
7.948	Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024?	Binary
7.722	Will Italy lose its investment-grade credit rating in May 2023?	Binary
7.718	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024?	Binary
7.664	Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
7.487	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
7.264	Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023?	Binary
7.166	Will the November 2023 Israel-Hamas humanitarian pause be extended?	Binary
7.161	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023?	Binary
7.147	Will Starship achieve liftoff before Monday, May 1st, 2023?	Binary
7.142	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Ash Regan)	Binary
6.982	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Patricia Bullrich)	Binary
6.882	Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?	Binary
6.871	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?	Binary
6.847	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
6.497	Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?	Binary
6.304	Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024?	Binary
6.200	Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?	Binary
6.168	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (November 7, 2023)	Binary
6.112	Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023?	Binary
6.044	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Emmer (R))	Binary
5.975	Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?	Binary
5.900	Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions?	Binary
5.780	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?	Binary
5.735	[Short Fuse] How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress?	Continuous
5.660	Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023?	Binary
5.598	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?	Binary
5.439	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
5.315	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
5.201	Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
5.010	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
4.978	Will a majority of voters approve Venezuela's referendum on incorporating Guayana Esequiba into Venezuela?	Binary
4.960	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
4.869	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
4.704	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 300)	Binary
4.698	When will Joe Biden issue his third veto?	Continuous
4.667	Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?	Binary
4.614	Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?	Binary
4.567	[Short Fuse] Will the total credit extended through all Fed liquidity facilities exceed $500 billion for any week before May 2023?	Binary
4.531	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Nancy Mace (R))	Binary
4.474	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Myriam Bregman)	Binary
4.450	Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?	Binary
4.397	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 100)	Binary
4.349	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
4.330	Will internationally recognized media outlets report that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun before June 21, 2023?	Binary
4.247	Will Donald Trump participate in the 2nd Republican primary debate?	Binary
4.223	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Juan Schiaretti)	Binary
4.091	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
3.911	Will Luisa González receive the most votes in the first round of the Ecuadorian election?	Binary
3.754	Will ChatGPT have multiple tiers of capability before 2024?	Binary
3.687	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
3.682	Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?	Binary
3.658	Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days?	Binary
3.560	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
3.554	Will Virgin Orbit file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
3.303	What will be the official death count for the 2023 Hawai'i wildfires as of January 1, 2024?	Continuous
3.139	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Adam Schiff (D))	Binary
3.077	Will the US Housing Market crash in 2023?	Binary
3.017	Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?	Binary
2.939	What will be the search engine market share of Bing in December of 2023?	Continuous
2.657	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (General Brice Oligui Nguema)	Binary
2.649	Will the EU Parliament endorse a negotiating mandate for the AI Act before June 16, 2023?	Binary
2.628	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sam Altman)	Binary
2.513	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
2.413	Will Ed Sheeran be found liable for copyright infringement in 'Let's Get It On' lawsuit?	Binary
2.335	Will Peter Bone MP be suspended from Parliament in 2023 (without first resigning)?	Binary
2.308	Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?	Binary
2.249	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
2.168	Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?	Binary
2.162	Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?	Binary
2.088	Will OpenAI release a "product" after ChatGPT before 2024?	Binary
2.002	Will the Conservatives hold on to their seat in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election?	Binary
1.964	Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?	Binary
1.796	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
1.784	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
1.732	Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?	Binary
1.706	What rating will Bethesda's video game Starfield have on Steam two weeks after release?	Continuous
1.690	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
1.658	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Katie Porter (D))	Binary
1.587	Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024?	Binary
1.543	Will there be a confirmed case of Marburg virus in Algeria by July 28th?	Binary
1.487	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Mark Zuckerberg)	Binary
1.484	Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023?	Binary
1.419	Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
1.355	Will the US Congress approve additional aid for Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
1.318	Will the Russian Luna-25 mission reach Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023?	Binary
1.293	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Austin Scott (R))	Binary
1.290	Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023?	Binary
1.277	Will copper prices reach an all-time-high in 2023?	Binary
1.179	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Tokmak railway station on January 1, 2024?	Binary
1.175	Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
1.160	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (Albert Ondo Ossa)	Binary
1.112	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
1.097	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Justice Leondra Kruger (D))	Binary
0.976	Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024?	Binary
0.975	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
0.964	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Former Senator Barbara Boxer (D))	Binary
0.945	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
0.906	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Demis Hassabis)	Binary
0.837	How far from the bow of the Titanic will the submersible 'Titan' be located?	Continuous
0.655	Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2023?	Binary
0.566	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
0.557	Will F-22 or F-35 fighter jets be pledged to Ukraine by January 1, 2024?	Binary
0.452	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (September 2)	Continuous
0.445	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?	Binary
0.435	Will France send their military to intervene in the Gabonese coup in 2023?	Binary
0.412	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Dario Amodei)	Binary
0.412	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
0.358	Will USDC restore its peg before May 1, 2023?	Binary
0.301	US Government Shutdown Before 2024? (No) → Johnson Speaker until 2024?	Binary
0.295	[Short Fuse] Will Credit Suisse experience any of the following scenarios before May 2023?	Binary
0.292	"Limit, Save, Grow Act" Passes before May? (Yes) → U.S. Debt Default Before July 1, 2023?	Binary
0.205	Will the President of Zimbabwe at the end of 2023 represent the ZANU-PF party?	Binary
0.174	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?	Binary
0.142	Will the German Train Drivers' Union (GDL) go on strike again before January 1, 2024?	Binary
0.132	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Hunter Biden (D))	Binary
0.132	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (President Ali Bongo Ondimba)	Binary
0.131	Will the statutory debt limit be increased or suspended for at least 30 days in the United States before 2024?	Binary
0.001	Will Ukraine be confirmed to have used chemical weapons against Russian forces by January 1, 2024?	Binary
-0.127	Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?	Binary
-0.263	Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?	Binary
-0.339	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
-0.462	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Barbara Lee (D))	Binary
-0.463	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Cole (R))	Binary
-0.494	Will OpenAI open-source GPT-3 before 2024?	Binary
-0.566	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
-0.698	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Brian Fitzpatrick (R))	Binary
-0.698	Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?	Binary
-0.730	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Mayor Karen Bass (D))	Binary
-0.739	Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023?	Binary
-0.789	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
-0.890	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Malia Cohen (D))	Binary
-0.966	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Maxine Waters (D))	Binary
-1.108	What will be the worldwide 7-day rolling average of confirmed mpox cases for June 30, 2023?	Continuous
-1.115	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
-1.394	Will New Delhi experience a "Very Unhealthy" or worse air quality index on at least four of the seven days for the week starting October 29?	Binary
-1.400	Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List?	Binary
-1.590	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
-1.618	Will the UCP win the most seats in the 2023 Alberta election?	Binary
-1.678	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
-1.686	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
-1.729	Will George Weah win re-election in the 2023 Liberian General Election?	Binary
-1.791	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
-1.866	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Lateefah Simon (D))	Binary
-1.940	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Angela Glover Blackwell (D))	Binary
-1.978	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-2.149	Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023?	Binary
-2.223	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Lee Zeldin (R))	Binary
-2.584	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
-2.724	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Sec. of State Shirley Weber (D))	Binary
-2.860	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (August 19)	Continuous
-2.921	What will NVIDIA's market cap be at the end of 2023?	Continuous
-3.384	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Holly Mitchell (D))	Binary
-3.742	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Mayor London Breed (D))	Binary
-4.058	Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023?	Binary
-4.556	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
-6.174	ECOWAS Intervention Before August 12, 2023? (No) → Mohamed Bazoum in Power By August 31, 2023?	Binary
-6.414	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D))	Binary
-7.405	Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-8.449	Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden’s Ukraine dealings before September 1st?	Binary
-9.177	What percentage of the vote will Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Presidential Elections’ runoff?	Continuous
-9.763	Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning?	Binary
-9.803	Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?	Binary
-10.324	What will be the average partisan vote swing from 2020 to 2023 in state-level special elections held in the US before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
-10.614	Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023?	Binary
-10.616	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?	Binary
-12.366	How much money (in US dollars) will GlobalGiving's Morocco Earthquake Relief Fund have raised on September 21, 2023?	Continuous
-14.747	Will OpenAI report having ≥99% uptime for ChatGPT and the OpenAI API in December 2023?	Binary
-15.850	Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?	Binary
-20.393	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Kate Forbes)	Binary
-20.442	Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?	Binary
-21.896	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Humza Yusaf)	Binary
-22.903	Trump participates in first debate? (No) → Trump Polling Change Two Weeks After Debate?	Continuous
-24.953	Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-26.914	How much will Donald Trump's Republican primary polling average change two weeks after the first debate?	Continuous
-27.158	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-29.077	Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?	Binary
-71.554	What will be the effective number of political parties in the Netherlands parliament following the 2023 election?	Continuous