PeterWildeford

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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9.158	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
116.758	How many countries will have approved the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine on June 30, 2023?	Continuous
83.755	How much additional aid for Ukraine will the US Congress approve before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
74.360	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
63.581	Will voting in Twitter polls require verification on April 16, 2023?	Binary
52.880	Will the 2023 World Chess Championship go to tiebreaks?	Binary
50.240	When will New York City’s period of consecutive rainy weekends end?	Continuous
49.439	Will Sweden's Loreen win the Eurovision Song Contest 2023?	Binary
46.213	How much money (in US dollars) will GlobalGiving's Morocco Earthquake Relief Fund have raised on September 21, 2023?	Continuous
42.539	What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) on December 30, 2023?	Continuous
42.064	When will the second Starship test flight occur?	Continuous
41.553	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Released by captor)	Continuous
41.356	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
41.002	When will Tunisia restore overnight public access to water?	Continuous
39.352	Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?	Binary
39.310	How many total seats will the Pheu Thai and Move Forward parties win in the Thailand election?	Continuous
38.644	Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections?	Binary
38.241	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
36.191	Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?	Binary
34.110	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (November 7, 2023)	Binary
33.449	Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?	Binary
32.331	When will the successor to Kevin McCarthy be elected as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives?	Continuous
31.991	Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel?	Binary
31.752	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
29.367	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu)	Binary
27.782	Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?	Binary
27.723	Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List?	Binary
26.197	Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?	Binary
25.892	Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?	Binary
25.796	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Rescued or escaped)	Continuous
25.091	Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023?	Binary
24.389	Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?	Binary
23.459	Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?	Binary
22.697	Will the Conservatives hold on to their seat in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election?	Binary
22.679	Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?	Binary
22.547	Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?	Binary
22.533	[Short Fuse] How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress?	Continuous
22.450	Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?	Binary
22.408	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
22.342	Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023?	Binary
21.683	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
21.388	Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?	Binary
21.210	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
21.153	Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?	Binary
20.981	Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?	Binary
20.917	What will be the average partisan vote swing from 2020 to 2023 in state-level special elections held in the US before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
19.957	Will Trump lose in the E. Jean Carroll sexual assault case?	Binary
19.849	Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023?	Binary
19.591	Will GPT-4 exhibit a capability jump for Leetcode questions before 2024?	Binary
19.369	Will Apple announce a Virtual Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
18.735	Will the EU Parliament endorse a negotiating mandate for the AI Act before June 16, 2023?	Binary
18.461	Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024?	Binary
17.691	Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?	Binary
17.525	Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?	Binary
17.299	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
17.015	When will the next volcanic eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula in Iceland begin?	Continuous
16.613	Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024?	Binary
15.967	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?	Binary
15.886	Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023?	Binary
15.488	Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
15.348	Wagner Group Controls Moscow by July 1, 2023? (No) → Ukraine Controls DNR/LNR on Jan 1, 2024	Binary
15.235	Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023?	Binary
15.108	Will the UCP win the most seats in the 2023 Alberta election?	Binary
14.914	What will the price of November 2023 Dutch TTF natural gas futures (in Euros per megawatt-hour) be on September 29, 2023?	Continuous
14.546	Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023?	Binary
14.509	Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023?	Binary
13.281	Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024?	Binary
13.214	What will be the worldwide 7-day rolling average of confirmed mpox cases for June 30, 2023?	Continuous
13.187	Will the winner of stage 9 of the 2023 Tour De France also hold the yellow jersey at the end of the stage?	Binary
12.993	Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023?	Binary
12.738	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)	Binary
12.565	Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?	Binary
12.427	Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days?	Binary
12.276	Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023?	Binary
12.200	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on September 30, 2023?	Continuous
12.153	Will Apple announce a Mixed Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
11.540	When will Joe Biden issue his third veto?	Continuous
11.511	Will the majority of OpenAI's Board of Directors leave the Board before December 1, 2023?	Binary
11.473	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?	Binary
11.373	Will OpenAI open-source GPT-3 before 2024?	Binary
10.933	Will George Weah win re-election in the 2023 Liberian General Election?	Binary
10.925	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
10.775	Will the US FDA authorize a new vaccine targeting COVID-19 in 2023?	Binary
10.627	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
10.601	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Emmer (R))	Binary
10.292	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?	Binary
10.117	Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?	Binary
10.110	Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?	Binary
9.991	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2024)	Binary
9.722	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?	Binary
9.336	Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?	Binary
8.944	Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?	Binary
8.532	Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?	Binary
8.239	How far from the bow of the Titanic will the submersible 'Titan' be located?	Continuous
8.239	Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?	Binary
7.940	Will internationally recognized media outlets report that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun before June 21, 2023?	Binary
7.922	What percentage of the vote will Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Presidential Elections’ runoff?	Continuous
7.659	Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?	Binary
7.649	Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?	Binary
7.619	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mansur Yavaş)	Binary
7.548	Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024?	Binary
7.228	Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024?	Binary
7.202	Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?	Binary
7.077	Short Fuse: Will the 'Titan' submersible be recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22?	Binary
7.012	Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?	Binary
7.000	Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?	Binary
6.955	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
6.802	Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?	Binary
6.706	When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT?	Continuous
6.651	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
6.516	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
6.476	Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden’s Ukraine dealings before September 1st?	Binary
6.453	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
6.381	Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
6.371	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
6.308	2023 World Chess Championship tiebreaks? (Yes) → Ding Liren 2023 World Chess Champion?	Binary
6.170	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?	Binary
6.111	Will the US Supreme Court declare the Indian Child Welfare Act unconstitutional?	Binary
6.065	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
5.971	Will Luisa González receive the most votes in the first round of the Ecuadorian election?	Binary
5.934	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
5.821	Will Representative George Santos be expelled from the US. House of Representatives before January 1, 2024?	Binary
5.778	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
5.739	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
5.704	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
5.658	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
5.608	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
5.590	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Nancy Mace (R))	Binary
5.534	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
5.421	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
5.230	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
5.203	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?	Binary
5.124	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
5.042	Will the "Limit, Save, Grow Act" pass the US House of Representatives before May 2023?	Binary
4.940	Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?	Binary
4.895	Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?	Binary
4.801	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
4.784	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
4.703	Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?	Binary
4.457	Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024?	Binary
4.400	Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
4.325	What percentage of the possession will the winning team have in the Women's World Cup Final?	Continuous
4.217	Will OpenAI release a "product" after ChatGPT before 2024?	Binary
4.111	"Limit, Save, Grow Act" Passes before May? (Yes) → U.S. Debt Default Before July 1, 2023?	Binary
4.102	Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?	Binary
3.935	Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?	Binary
3.886	Will there be a confirmed case of Marburg virus in Algeria by July 28th?	Binary
3.826	Will New Delhi experience a "Very Unhealthy" or worse air quality index on at least four of the seven days for the week starting October 29?	Binary
3.646	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
3.631	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (General Brice Oligui Nguema)	Binary
3.623	Will OpenAI report having ≥99% uptime for ChatGPT and the OpenAI API in December 2023?	Binary
3.609	Will Donald Trump participate in the 2nd Republican primary debate?	Binary
3.225	Will Ed Sheeran be found liable for copyright infringement in 'Let's Get It On' lawsuit?	Binary
3.216	Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?	Binary
2.986	Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023?	Binary
2.986	Will Starship achieve liftoff before Monday, May 1st, 2023?	Binary
2.938	When will The One Ring be found?	Continuous
2.784	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
2.711	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Adam Schiff (D))	Binary
1.907	Will Ding Liren win the 2023 World Chess Championship?	Binary
1.805	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (Albert Ondo Ossa)	Binary
1.771	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
1.669	Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
1.640	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
1.541	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Katie Porter (D))	Binary
1.540	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Former Senator Barbara Boxer (D))	Binary
1.259	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Austin Scott (R))	Binary
1.236	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
1.151	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
1.123	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
1.022	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)	Binary
0.942	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (President Ali Bongo Ondimba)	Binary
0.926	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
0.903	Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024?	Binary
0.891	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Brian Fitzpatrick (R))	Binary
0.880	Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?	Binary
0.880	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
0.872	Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?	Binary
0.858	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Sec. of State Shirley Weber (D))	Binary
0.843	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce)	Binary
0.768	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Meral Akşener)	Binary
0.701	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
0.691	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ahmet Davutoğlu)	Binary
0.650	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Cole (R))	Binary
0.644	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?	Binary
0.597	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan)	Binary
0.565	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Maxine Waters (D))	Binary
0.522	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Sinan Oğan)	Binary
0.478	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Angela Glover Blackwell (D))	Binary
0.473	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Mayor Karen Bass (D))	Binary
0.464	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Pervin Buldan)	Binary
0.454	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Lee Zeldin (R))	Binary
0.450	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Devlet Bahçeli)	Binary
0.437	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Süleyman Soylu)	Binary
0.435	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Fatih Erbakan)	Binary
0.433	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mustafa Sarıgül)	Binary
0.430	Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?	Binary
0.427	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Temel Karamollaoğlu)	Binary
0.416	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ali Babacan)	Binary
0.416	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Abdullah Gül)	Binary
0.411	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Gültekin Uysal)	Binary
0.395	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Tansu Çiller)	Binary
0.384	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Doğu Perinçek)	Binary
0.318	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Mayor London Breed (D))	Binary
0.315	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D))	Binary
0.314	Will USDC restore its peg before May 1, 2023?	Binary
0.223	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Barbara Lee (D))	Binary
0.217	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
0.217	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Justice Leondra Kruger (D))	Binary
0.174	ECOWAS Intervention Before August 12, 2023? (No) → Mohamed Bazoum in Power By August 31, 2023?	Binary
0.120	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Hunter Biden (D))	Binary
0.110	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Lateefah Simon (D))	Binary
0.048	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Malia Cohen (D))	Binary
0.017	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Holly Mitchell (D))	Binary
-0.081	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023?	Binary
-0.122	Will Peter Bone MP be suspended from Parliament in 2023 (without first resigning)?	Binary
-0.523	Will any additional Republican candidates for president drop out before 2024?	Binary
-1.221	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Laphonza Butler (D))	Binary
-1.781	Will there be an additional Russian IPO on the MICEX in 2023?	Binary
-1.944	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Mike Johnson (R))	Binary
-2.978	Will Sarah Bernstein or Chetna Maroo win the 2023 Booker Prize?	Binary
-3.036	Will SpaceX receive a launch license for Starship from the FAA before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
-4.189	What percentage of the vote will presidential candidate candidate Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Open Primaries Elections?	Continuous
-4.455	Will the 2023 Presidential Elections in Sierra Leone proceed to a runoff?	Binary
-4.946	Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?	Binary
-5.482	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
-5.692	Will the November 2023 Israel-Hamas humanitarian pause be extended?	Binary
-6.031	Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?	Binary
-6.166	Russian Coup or Regime Change before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?	Binary
-7.406	What will be the effective number of political parties in the Netherlands parliament following the 2023 election?	Continuous
-9.676	Trump participates in first debate? (No) → Trump Polling Change Two Weeks After Debate?	Continuous
-11.027	Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning?	Binary
-12.590	How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives to replace Kevin McCarthy?	Continuous
-17.240	Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023?	Binary
-18.972	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
-18.985	How much will Donald Trump's Republican primary polling average change two weeks after the first debate?	Continuous
-26.084	Will the author who wins the 2023 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction be a first-time finalist?	Binary
-29.506	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (August 19)	Continuous
-31.278	Will top institutions participating in the UK’s global AI Safety Summit make concrete and meaningful commitments to advance AI safety?	Binary
-46.567	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (September 2)	Continuous
-65.302	Will a nearly continuous human chain stretch across the length of the Forth and Clyde Canal on 14 October 2023?	Binary
-116.103	Will the MONUSCO UN peacekeeping mission to the Democratic Republic of the Congo be extended with a military personnel ceiling above 11,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary