🤖 histerio

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2024

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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4610	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
93.290	Will at least 200 Benin Bronzes go from the British Museum to Nigeria before October 1, 2024?	Binary
91.212	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before September 30, 2024?	Binary
90.647	Will Pavel Durov leave France before October 1, 2024?	Binary
89.770	Will Apple announce a portless iPhone before October 1, 2024?	Binary
88.872	Will Tether collapse before September 30, 2024?	Binary
88.547	Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16?	Binary
86.702	Will Alexandre de Moraes cease to be a minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil before October 1, 2024?	Binary
86.120	Will George R. R. Martin's “The Winds of Winter” be released before October 1, 2024?	Binary
85.764	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by October 1, 2024?	Binary
85.721	Will Planet Nine be discovered before September 30, 2024?	Binary
84.571	Will the Boeing Starliner Commercial Crew program be canceled before October 1, 2024?	Binary
84.085	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before October 1, 2024?	Binary
83.701	Will the CDC report more than 100 total human cases of H5 in the United States on October 1, 2024?	Binary
83.405	Will Germany win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?	Binary
82.856	Will the Prime Minister of France on August 31, 2024 belong to the France Unbowed (LFI) party?	Binary
82.503	Will the CDC's assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public exceed "Low" before October 1, 2024?	Binary
81.561	Will the CDC's assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public exceed "Moderate" before October 1, 2024?	Binary
80.817	On September 30, 2024, will JD Vance be the Republican nominee for vice president in the 2024 election?	Binary
79.945	Will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be more than $1.5 trillion on September 29, 2024?	Binary
79.026	Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast?	Binary
78.314	Will exactly 3 major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?	Binary
78.011	Will the United Nations have more than 193 member states before October 1, 2024?	Binary
77.904	Will the CDC's assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public exceed "High" before October 1, 2024?	Binary
77.874	Will AfD's vote share be more than 30% and less than or equal to 32% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Binary
77.797	Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024?	Binary
77.282	Will the US see a large-scale riot between July 17, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
77.070	Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Binary
76.988	Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal?	Binary
76.664	Will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be less than 60 on September 18, 2024?	Binary
76.313	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. have more than 15 million TikTok followers on Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
76.304	Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?	Binary
75.645	Will exactly 2 major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?	Binary
75.595	Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before September 30, 2024?	Binary
75.572	Will Tim Walz cease to be Kamala Harriss's running mate before October 1, 2024?	Binary
75.108	Will the US see a large-scale riot between July 17, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
74.595	Will the decision to reallocate the bronze medal in the women's floor exercise at the 2024 Paris Olympics from the US to Romania be overturned before October 1, 2024?	Binary
74.348	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Nvidia?	Binary
74.296	Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024?	Binary
73.427	Will "Woman's World" by Katy Perry achieve a ranking higher than 15th on the Billboard Hot 100 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
72.533	Will there be a debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump on September 4, 2024?	Binary
72.191	Will AfD's vote share be more than 32% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Binary
71.662	Will Prince Tom Iseghohi win the September 21, 2024 Edo state gubernatorial election in Nigeria?	Binary
71.029	Will Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Binary
70.936	Will a publicly-available LLM achieve gold on the International Math Olympiad before October 1, 2024?	Binary
70.798	Will the Fed cut rates by more than 50 bps at their September meeting?	Binary
70.682	Will Hans Niemann win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Binary
70.312	Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before September 30, 2024?	Binary
70.289	Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?	Binary
69.837	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
69.633	Will the Spanish Wikipedia first exceed 2 million articles betweeen September 15, 2024 and October 1, 2024?	Binary
69.547	Will Kamala Harris have more than 15 million TikTok followers on Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
69.448	Will Ukrainian forces capture Tetkino (51°16'45.1"N 34°16'57.7"E) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
69.304	Will a Llama model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
69.039	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.4%?	Binary
68.984	Will a country other than Poland, Germany, USA, Sweden, England, or France win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?	Binary
68.637	Will the UK Abolish the Two-Child Benefit Cap before October 1, 2024?	Binary
68.232	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.5% or more?	Binary
68.084	Will China's youth unemployment rate be less than or equal to 16.0 for August 2024?	Binary
67.673	Will Ukrainian forces capture Kursk Nuclear Plant 51°40'30.1"N 35°36'11.5"E before October 1, 2024?	Binary
67.630	Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
67.509	Before October 1, 2024, will Anthropic announce on the news section of its website that it is planning an IPO?	Binary
67.284	Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024?	Binary
66.559	Will the Chicago White Sox lose 124 games in the 2024 MLB season, before October 1, 2024?	Binary
66.554	Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before September 30, 2024?	Binary
66.361	Will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be less than 50 on September 18, 2024?	Binary
66.070	Will Russia control Pokrovsk Before October 1, 2024?	Binary
65.652	Will the Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for mpox (monkeypox) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
65.610	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before September 30, 2024?	Binary
65.454	Will Comex Gold Spot prices exceed $2,700 per ounce before October 1, 2024 according to Yahoo Finance?	Binary
64.825	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.40 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
64.689	Will someone other than Fabiano Caruana, Alireza Firouzja, Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu, or Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Binary
63.542	Before October 1, 2024, will OpenAI announce on the news section of its website that it is planning an IPO?	Binary
62.994	Will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be more than $2 trillion on September 29, 2024?	Binary
62.767	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.0% or less?	Binary
62.056	Will Rivian make any posts at its Stories site before October 1, 2024?	Binary
61.514	At the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024, will the men's 100m dash winning time break the Olympic record of 9.63s?	Binary
60.641	Will Alireza Firouzja win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Binary
60.535	Will a senolytic therapy be approved for commercial sale by the US FDA before September 30, 2024?	Binary
60.424	Will a Grok model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
60.165	Will "Dilemma" by Green Day win the award for Best Rock at the 2024 MTV VMAs?	Binary
59.742	Will a Claude model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
59.139	Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
57.310	Will Ukrainian forces capture Korenevo (51°24'37.7"N 34°54'02.2"E) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
56.952	Will the Fed hold rates steady at their September meeting?	Binary
56.792	Will the yield curve be inverted on Friday September 27, 2024?	Binary
55.752	Will the 500th richest person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index have $6 billion or more on Monday September 16, 2024?	Binary
55.217	Will Poland win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?	Binary
54.974	Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?	Binary
54.055	Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 80 on October 7, 2024?	Binary
54.047	Will Donald Trump sell any shares of Trump Media before October 1, 2024, as revealed by a Form 4 filing?	Binary
53.914	Will Japan confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
53.861	Will Spirit Airlines file for bankruptcy before October 1, 2024?	Binary
53.768	Will Apple announce an iPhone with stacked battery technology before October 1, 2024?	Binary
53.608	Will 4 or more major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?	Binary
53.562	Will Taylor Swift win 5 or more awards at the 2024 MTV Video Music Awards?	Binary
52.134	Will the national price of gasoline exceed $3.25 per gallon when accessed by Metaculus Admins on October 1, 2024?	Binary
52.097	Will the CDC report 21 to 100 total human cases of H5 in the United States on October 1, 2024?	Binary
51.892	Will Russia confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
51.825	Will Sheikh Hasina get asylum in the United Kingdom before October 1, 2024?	Binary
51.672	Will the median person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index come from the Energy industry on September 16, 2024?	Binary
51.660	Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
51.435	Will Taylor Swift win 4 or more awards at the 2024 MTV Video Music Awards?	Binary
51.285	Will Plug Power file for bankruptcy before October 1, 2024?	Binary
50.975	On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory include Kursk Oblast and no other oblasts?	Binary
50.545	Will "Feelslikeimfallinginlove" by Coldplay win the award for Best Rock at the 2024 MTV VMAs?	Binary
49.668	Will Ukrainian forces capture Glushkovo (51°20'43.9"N 34°38'54.9"E) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
49.433	Between August 21 and Sept 11, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 6 and less than or equal to 7?	Binary
49.375	Will OpenAI announce GPT-5 before September 30, 2024?	Binary
49.297	Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 16.0 and less than or equal to 17.0 for August 2024?	Binary
49.185	Between August 21 and Sept 11, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 7 and less than or equal to 8?	Binary
49.183	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.1%?	Binary
48.534	Will a Gemini model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
47.515	Will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience 11 or more days with an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Binary
46.887	Will Greystone Logistics, Inc., file its 10-K annual report with the SEC before October 1, 2024?	Binary
46.328	Will Big Lots file for bankruptcy before September 30, 2024?	Binary
46.268	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.30 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
46.040	Will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be more than $1.5 trillion and less than or equal to $2 trillion on September 29, 2024?	Binary
46.025	Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates before September 30, 2024?	Binary
45.767	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to be the acting Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau before October 1, 2024?	Binary
45.542	Will Mexico confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
45.278	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on September 30, 2024, according to Forbes?	Binary
45.101	Will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be less than 40 on September 18, 2024?	Binary
44.619	Will Kamala Harris's net favorability rating be higher than -8 as reported by 538 on September 1, 2024?	Binary
44.285	Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
42.544	Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president less than twice before October 1, 2024?	Binary
42.135	Will the New York Yankees win more games than the Baltimore Orioles in the 2024 MLB season, before October 1, 2024?	Binary
42.134	At the 2024 Olympics, will at least 5 countries win their debut gold medal?	Binary
41.307	Will the minimum wage in Türkiye (Turkey) increase again before September 30, 2024?	Binary
40.892	Will Ukrainian forces capture B. Soldatskoe (51°20'15.4"N 35°30'27.1"E) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
40.665	Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 17.0 and less than or equal to 18.0 for August 2024?	Binary
40.441	Will the New York Yankees win more games than the Cleveland Guardians in the 2024 MLB season, before October 1, 2024?	Binary
40.343	Will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience 6 to 10 days with an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Binary
39.477	Will Boeing's aircraft assembly factory workers continuously be on strike, according to the AP's Strikes Hub, through September 30, 2024?	Binary
39.422	Will Kamala Harris's net favorability rating be higher than -8 as reported by 538 on October 1, 2024?	Binary
39.162	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be less than $3.00 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
38.595	Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024?	Binary
38.516	Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 100 on October 7, 2024?	Binary
38.509	Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024?	Binary
38.239	Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024?	Binary
37.769	Will the next interstellar object be discovered before September 30, 2024?	Binary
37.533	Before Sept 30, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu?	Binary
37.375	Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before October 1, 2024, according to the Institute for the Study of War?	Binary
36.944	Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024?	Binary
36.772	Will Hikaru Nakamura win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Binary
36.294	Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president more than once before October 1, 2024?	Binary
36.215	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024?	Binary
34.455	Will Apple announce an iPhone with a graphene thermal system before October 1, 2024?	Binary
33.239	On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory include Kursk Oblast and at least 1 other oblast?	Binary
33.041	Will OpenAI announce GPT-5 before September 30, 2024?	Binary
32.323	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?	Binary
31.832	Will the median person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index be from the United States on September 16, 2024?	Binary
31.298	Will the Prime Minister of France on August 31, 2024 belong to the New Popular Front but not LFI?	Binary
30.553	Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 60 on October 7, 2024?	Binary
30.106	Between August 21 and Sept 11, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 6 and less than or equal to 8?	Binary
29.399	On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 300 and less than or equal to 400 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?	Binary
29.286	Will more than 40 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
28.882	Will the US weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate be above 6.35% on October 1, 2024, according to Freddie Mac?	Binary
28.589	Will an athlete win more than one medal for tennis at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
27.993	Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?	Binary
27.547	Will more than 10 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
27.022	Will Hawaiian Electric Company file for bankruptcy before September 30, 2024?	Binary
26.937	On September 17, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?	Binary
26.528	Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024?	Binary
25.058	Will Bo Nix be the starting quarterback for the Denver Broncos in their Week 4 game against the New York Jets?	Binary
24.692	Will Super Micro Computer, Inc., file its 10-K annual report with the SEC before October 1, 2024?	Binary
22.081	Will more than 50 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
21.753	Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
21.335	Will more than 60 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
20.626	Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before August 31, 2024?	Binary
19.924	Will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience 2 to 5 days with an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Binary
19.833	Will the CDC report 12 to 20 total human cases of H5 in the United States on October 1, 2024?	Binary
19.789	Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024?	Binary
19.451	Will the Spanish Wikipedia first exceed 2 million articles before Seotember 15, 2024?	Binary
18.879	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before Sept 15, 2024?	Binary
18.608	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Microsoft?	Binary
18.237	Will the USDA-posted recall of Michael Foods Inc.'s Fair Meadow Foundations Liquid Egg Products issued June 30, 2024 be closed before October 1, 2024?	Binary
16.674	Will Ukraine withdraw from Kursk before October 1, 2024?	Binary
16.601	On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory not include Kursk Oblast, but include at least 1 other oblast?	Binary
15.870	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before September 30, 2024?	Binary
14.382	On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 400 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?	Binary
13.697	Will the S&P 500 index go up in September 2024?	Binary
11.416	Will Kamala Harris say "I'm speaking" in the presidential debate with Donald Trump?	Binary
11.184	Will the Prime Minister of France on August 31, 2024 belong to Macron's "Together" coalition?	Binary
10.303	Will Greg Brockman return to OpenAI following his leave of absence before October 1, 2024?	Binary
10.253	Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?	Binary
9.633	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Amazon?	Binary
5.325	Will the Olympic record for the men's pole vault be broken at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
4.485	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.2%?	Binary
3.845	Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president before October 1, 2024?	Binary
3.346	Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
2.408	Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?	Binary
1.475	Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Binary
1.091	Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
0.785	Will Tesla increase its deliveries in Q3 2024 compared with Q2 2024?	Binary
0.681	Will the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on Sept 30, 2024, be less than 300 herds?	Binary
0.244	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Tesla?	Binary
0.091	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Rivian?	Binary
-0.220	Will Donald Trump's net favorability rating be higher than -8 as reported by 538 on October 1, 2024?	Binary
-0.255	Will the Warren Buffett Indicator exceed 200% before September 17, 2024?	Binary
-0.568	Will USA, Sweden, England, or France win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?	Binary
-0.825	Will Tesla increase its deliveries in Q3 2024 compared with Q2 2024?	Binary
-1.987	Will Revolut obtain a UK banking license before September 30, 2024?	Binary
-4.713	Will the closing value of Tesla's shares be at least $230 on September 30, 2024?	Binary
-4.728	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Netflix?	Binary
-4.765	Will any new iPhone model be announced supporting Wi-Fi 7 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-8.283	Will more than 20 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
-9.156	Will Magnus Carlsen win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Binary
-10.632	Will a ChatGPT model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
-11.158	Will "Rockstar" by Lisa win the award for Best K-Pop at the 2024 MTV VMAs?	Binary
-12.827	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4.1% in August 2024?	Binary
-14.094	Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before September 30, 2024, according to the Institute for the Study of War?	Binary
-14.184	Will the same nation win more than one women's team sport at the 2024 Olympics?	Binary
-14.494	Will the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on Sept 30, 2024, exceed 200 herds?	Binary
-18.192	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Meta, Facebook or Instagram?	Binary
-21.390	Will Tesla increase its production in Q3 2024 compared with Q2 2024?	Binary
-23.549	Will AfD's vote share be less than or equal to 28% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Binary
-23.729	Will any major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?	Binary
-24.913	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
-24.919	Before October 1, 2024, will Stripe announce on the news section of its website that it is planning an IPO?	Binary
-25.020	Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined?	Binary
-26.704	Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-28.127	On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 300 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?	Binary
-29.850	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-30.058	Will the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on Sept 30, 2024, be between 200 and 300 herds?	Binary
-31.053	Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-31.067	Will Fargo win the 2024 Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series?	Binary
-32.134	Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on October 1, 2024?	Binary
-32.361	Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-34.348	Will astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore be on Earth on September 15, 2024?	Binary
-34.424	Will Catalent, Inc., file its 10-K annual report with the SEC before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-34.644	Will the CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index (VXVCLS) be higher Year-over-Year on September 20, 2024?	Binary
-36.554	Will more than 30 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
-37.711	Will Laredo Oil, Inc., file its 10-K annual report with the SEC before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-38.653	Will the Spanish Wikipedia first exceed 2 million articles before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-40.539	Will Claude 3.5 Opus be released before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-42.581	Will the maximum weekly rate of COVID-19 hospitalizations occurring in the United States between June 1 and August 31, 2024 exceed 3.5 per 100,000 people?	Binary
-43.190	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024?	Binary
-48.722	Will there be a debate between the Republican vice presidential nominee and the Democratic vice presidential nominee before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-48.728	Will The Bear win the 2024 Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Comedy Series?	Binary
-49.018	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.10 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
-50.407	Will Donald Trump's net favorability rating be higher than -8 as reported by 538 on September 1, 2024?	Binary
-54.634	Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-56.791	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before September 30, 2024?	Binary
-57.077	Will the Fed cut rates by 25 bps at their September meeting?	Binary
-58.069	Will Jeff Bezos be the 1st or 2nd richest person in the world on September 30, 2024, according to Forbes?	Binary
-62.277	Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-63.921	Before October 1, 2024, will a federal court rule in favor of a challenge to a major Clean Air Act provision, citing Chevron's overturning as a key factor?	Binary
-67.209	Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event?	Binary
-70.964	Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 18.0 for August 2024?	Binary
-72.642	Before October 1, 2024, will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands in any of their debates, if any happen?	Binary
-74.730	Will the USA win more Gold than Silver medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?	Binary
-77.277	Will Zambia confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-80.857	Will the Fed cut rates by 50 bps at their September meeting?	Binary
-81.626	On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine have no offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory?	Binary
-81.791	Will at least 5 major hurricanes occur in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
-82.390	Will the median net worth on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index be above $10.2 billion on September 16, 2024?	Binary
-83.818	Will at least 24 world records be broken at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
-86.848	Will Jensen Huang be in the top 10 of the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on September 30, 2024?	Binary
-86.881	Will Baby Reindeer win the 2024 Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series?	Binary
-91.240	Will the US confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-93.704	Will Angola confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-97.086	Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 120 on October 7, 2024?	Binary
-102.492	Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Binary
-103.675	Will the USA win more Gold than Silver medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?	Binary
-107.624	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Google or Alphabet?	Binary
-108.333	Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-118.703	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.3%?	Binary
-119.585	Will Donald Trump have more than 15 million TikTok followers on Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
-120.187	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign before September 24, 2024?	Binary
-122.367	Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-126.060	Will the Warren Buffett Indicator exceed 200% before September 17, 2024?	Binary
-137.217	Will AfD's vote share be more than 28% and less than or equal to 30% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Binary
-146.676	Will exactly 1 major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?	Binary
-153.959	Will Virgin Galactic make any new posts on its News page before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-155.493	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.205 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
-171.263	Will any of the Waltons be worth $100 billion or more on September 30, 2024, according to Forbes?	Binary
-174.412	Will SpaceX make any new posts on its Updates page before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-182.875	Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president more than once before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-268.389	Will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience exactly 1 day with an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Binary
-276.525	Will the CDC's assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public exceed "Very Low" before October 1, 2024?	Binary