| 173.117 | What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (VIX) | Continuous |
| 170.447 | What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (OVX) | Continuous |
| 134.987 | What will be the highest closing price of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) stock any day after April 14, 2024, and before the 2024 United States presidential election? | Continuous |
| 111.323 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 South African general election? (Democratic Alliance) | Continuous |
| 109.131 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 South African general election? (African National Congress) | Continuous |
| 107.067 | How many cases of severe invasive streptococcal infections (TSLS) will be reported in Japan on July 2? | Continuous |
| 99.268 | Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
| 98.948 | Will the US and China be party to any AI regulation treaty that controls or monitors AI development in the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 98.870 | Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024? | Binary |
| 98.640 | Before November 5th, 2024, will Donald Trump successfully appeal any felony conviction in the "hush money" case? | Binary |
| 98.445 | Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan? | Binary |
| 98.201 | Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 97.138 | Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024? | Binary |
| 97.083 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
| 97.028 | Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024? | Binary |
| 96.966 | Will anyone win an Electoral College majority in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 96.459 | Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 95.902 | Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 94.917 | Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 94.200 | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 94.159 | Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024? | Binary |
| 93.851 | Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024? | Binary |
| 93.647 | Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 93.443 | Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2025? | Binary |
| 93.332 | Which school will be #1 in the QS World University Rankings 2025, scheduled to be released on June 4, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 93.161 | Who will be #1 on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on June 28, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 92.949 | Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast? | Binary |
| 92.844 | By how many billion USD will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025? | Continuous |
| 92.347 | Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024? | Binary |
| 92.217 | Will a U.S. President’s State of the Union address mention the issue of AI existential risk before the listed year? (2025) | Binary |
| 91.912 | Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal? | Binary |
| 91.115 | [Short Fuse] Will the vote of no confidence in Michel Barnier's government pass in the French National Assembly? | Binary |
| 90.412 | [Short fuse] Will there be a majority of "Yes" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum? | Binary |
| 90.310 | Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024? | Binary |
| 90.220 | Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 90.181 | Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025? | Binary |
| 89.619 | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 89.465 | Will Israel carry out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 88.905 | Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (4. No retaliation for public risk disclosure) | Binary |
| 88.574 | Iran deadly attack on Israel before May 2024? (No) → Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before May 2024? | Binary |
| 88.496 | Will Nigel Farage be elected as a Member of Parliament in the July 4 2024 UK General Election? | Binary |
| 88.444 | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Total Ban) | Binary |
| 88.420 | Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 88.165 | [Short fuse] Will the Moldovan European Union membership referendum cross the turnout threshold to be valid? | Binary |
| 87.872 | Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 87.556 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 South African general election? (Economic Freedom Fighters) | Continuous |
| 87.289 | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Licensing for Use) | Binary |
| 87.272 | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Restricted Use for Specific Groups) | Binary |
| 86.920 | Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024? | Binary |
| 86.775 | Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates? | Binary |
| 86.321 | Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President? | Binary |
| 86.101 | Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 86.061 | [Short fuse] Will California's Proposition 33 (allowing rent control) pass in the 2024 general election? | Binary |
| 85.674 | What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average? | Continuous |
| 85.502 | Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024? | Binary |
| 85.313 | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024) | Binary |
| 85.294 | Will Ariel Henry return to Haiti before March 13, 2024? | Binary |
| 85.261 | On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory? | Multiple Choice |
| 84.653 | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (May 9, 2024) | Binary |
| 83.743 | How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 83.645 | Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 83.605 | Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025? | Binary |
| 83.453 | Who will win the 2024 Senate election in Arizona? | Multiple Choice |
| 83.307 | Who will win the Tour de France 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 82.837 | Will Sam Altman leave OpenAI (again) before 2025? | Binary |
| 82.757 | Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (2. An anonymous process to raise risks) | Binary |
| 82.439 | Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 82.195 | What will the US Supreme Court decide regarding Chevron deference in its 2023-2024 term? | Multiple Choice |
| 82.178 | Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 82.005 | Will there be war between North Korea and South Korea before these dates, according to WPR? (2025) | Binary |
| 81.564 | Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025? | Binary |
| 81.165 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Mark Kelly) | Binary |
| 80.665 | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Mandatory Disclosure Requirements) | Binary |
| 79.826 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 South African general election? (Other parties and independents) | Continuous |
| 79.709 | Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 78.561 | Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 78.515 | On June 28th, 2024, will Gamestop's market capitalization be higher than Docusign's, according to CompaniesMarketCap? | Binary |
| 78.416 | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 78.338 | Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 78.172 | Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (3. A culture of open criticism) | Binary |
| 78.030 | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 78.005 | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Restricted Use for Approved Applications) | Binary |
| 78.001 | Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024? | Binary |
| 77.904 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (La France Insoumise) | Continuous |
| 77.863 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Parti Socialiste) | Continuous |
| 77.628 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Andy Beshear) | Binary |
| 77.558 | Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024? | Binary |
| 76.875 | Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 76.538 | Will Paul Christiano be publicly confirmed to be joining the US AI Safety Institute before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 76.318 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Josh Shapiro) | Binary |
| 76.104 | Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 76.018 | Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024? | Binary |
| 75.962 | Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025? | Binary |
| 75.367 | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024? | Continuous |
| 75.220 | Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025? | Binary |
| 75.095 | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on September 30, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
| 75.084 | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 74.823 | Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 74.676 | Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024? | Binary |
| 74.241 | Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024? | Binary |
| 74.122 | Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 72.919 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 South African general election? (Inkatha Freedom Party) | Continuous |
| 72.390 | In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
| 71.087 | On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group? | Multiple Choice |
| 70.161 | Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024? | Binary |
| 69.021 | Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards? | Binary |
| 68.198 | Will the cherry blossoms reach full bloom in Tokyo before April 5, 2024? | Binary |
| 67.996 | Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 67.920 | On June 21, 2024, what will be the closing value of BSE SENSEX? | Continuous |
| 67.550 | How many arms sales globally will the US State Department approve in the fourth quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
| 67.237 | Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024? | Binary |
| 67.112 | Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024? | Binary |
| 66.658 | Which party coalition will form the state government following the 2024 Brandenburg state election? | Multiple Choice |
| 66.596 | What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 66.160 | What will be the best score on the SWE-Bench (unassisted) benchmark before 2025? | Continuous |
| 65.887 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
| 64.541 | Will the 2024 World Chess Champion be decided in the first 10 games? | Binary |
| 64.465 | What will be the official vote percentage for the Ensemble! coalition in the first round of the French legislative elections on June 30, 2024, as reported by July 3, 2024? | Continuous |
| 64.220 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 South African general election? (uMkhonto we Sizwe) | Continuous |
| 64.164 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 South African general election? (Freedom Front Plus) | Continuous |
| 63.508 | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 63.377 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Non affiliated) | Continuous |
| 62.256 | Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term? | Binary |
| 61.114 | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024? | Binary |
| 61.016 | Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024? | Binary |
| 59.448 | Which party coalition will form the state government following the 2024 Thuringia state election? | Multiple Choice |
| 59.098 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Les Républicains) | Continuous |
| 58.838 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 South African general election? (African Christian Democratic Party) | Continuous |
| 58.799 | What will be the close price of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) on December 30, 2024? | Continuous |
| 58.436 | Who will win the Speed Chess Championship 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 57.882 | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Venezuela? | Multiple Choice |
| 56.810 | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024? | Binary |
| 56.790 | Will the following years be the warmest year on record, according to NASA? (2024) | Binary |
| 56.615 | Will New Delhi experience a "Hazardous" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024? | Binary |
| 56.120 | Will a terrorist act occur in metropolitan France during the 2024 Summer Olympics? | Binary |
| 56.070 | Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Kemi Badenoch) | Binary |
| 55.177 | Will Russia control Pokrovsk Before 2025? | Binary |
| 54.667 | Which jurisdiction will be the "Tipping Point" in the 2024 US presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
| 54.205 | How many whooping cough cases will New Zealand report for weeks 51 and 52? | Continuous |
| 53.694 | Which party will the new Prime Minister of Iceland belong to after the 2024 parliamentary elections? | Multiple Choice |
| 52.464 | What will be the outcome of Donald Trump's New York "hush money" criminal trial? | Multiple Choice |
| 52.258 | On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark? | Multiple Choice |
| 52.190 | Will Bitcoin go up over 2024? | Binary |
| 51.820 | How many Metaculus users that ranked in the top 16 in the Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup will remain in the top 16 at the end of Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup? | Continuous |
| 51.652 | How many IM and GM account closures will chess.com report for 2024? | Continuous |
| 51.612 | Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024? | Binary |
| 51.059 | What will be the value of Bitcoin (in USD) on April 1, 2024? | Continuous |
| 50.042 | Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election? | Multiple Choice |
| 49.194 | Will Iran's Guardian Council include Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's name on its list of approved candidates for president of Iran? | Binary |
| 49.139 | Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 48.592 | Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before August 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 48.256 | Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting? | Binary |
| 48.244 | Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 47.828 | What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024? | Continuous |
| 47.356 | Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025? | Binary |
| 47.215 | When will Starship next reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers? | Continuous |
| 47.104 | Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
| 46.612 | Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour? | Multiple Choice |
| 46.405 | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Civil Liability Laws) | Binary |
| 46.014 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Renaissance) | Continuous |
| 45.751 | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Kamala Harris, November 1 2024) | Continuous |
| 45.296 | In the Q3 AI Benchmarking tournament, how will the Pro aggregate Baseline score compare to the best bot? | Continuous |
| 45.146 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024? | Binary |
| 44.770 | Will the Venezuelan electoral commission publish full results of the July 28 presidential election before August 12, 2024? | Binary |
| 44.618 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Parti Communiste) | Continuous |
| 44.466 | Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 43.816 | Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 43.791 | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on Tuesday November 5, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
| 43.742 | Will Rishi Sunak fail to be elected in the 2024 UK General Election? | Binary |
| 43.403 | What will be the polling average gap in the UK national parliament voting intention between the Labour and Conservative parties according to The Economist on June 27, 2024? | Continuous |
| 42.310 | Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024? | Binary |
| 42.241 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Ecologistes) | Continuous |
| 42.010 | What will US airline passenger volume be for the week of Christmas through New Years Eve 2024, according to the TSA? | Continuous |
| 41.242 | Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16? | Binary |
| 40.896 | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (No Restriction) | Binary |
| 39.250 | How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 39.011 | Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote? | Binary |
| 38.882 | Which team will win the 2024 Indian Premier League final? | Multiple Choice |
| 38.659 | Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 38.219 | How many deliveries will Tesla report in the second quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
| 38.091 | What will be the price of Boeing stock (in USD) at market close on March 29, 2024? | Continuous |
| 37.158 | Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March? | Binary |
| 37.121 | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Kamala Harris, October 1 2024) | Continuous |
| 36.268 | What will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024? | Continuous |
| 36.257 | What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on May 1, 2024? | Continuous |
| 35.894 | Will gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar ('Fito') be in Ecuadorian custody before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 35.833 | ICC Arrest Warrants for Israeli Leaders? (No) → Netanyahu PM Through 2024? | Binary |
| 35.807 | What will the IMDB rating of the special episode of Bluey titled "The Sign" be three days after it airs? | Continuous |
| 34.639 | What will be the value of China's CSI 300 stock index at market close on December 31st, 2024? | Continuous |
| 34.423 | Will South Africa elect a president before July 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 32.945 | How many days will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 32.900 | What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election? | Continuous |
| 32.507 | Will Ukraine withdraw from Kursk before December 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 31.190 | How many U.S. federal executive department heads will the incoming administration announce between the election and December 16, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 31.110 | Will the nominated Republican presidential candidate receive over 50% of the valid votes in Texas in 2024 United States presidential election? | Binary |
| 30.157 | Who will win the popular vote in the 2024 United States presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
| 29.558 | Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024? | Binary |
| 28.110 | What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (December 30) | Continuous |
| 27.602 | Who will win Jeopardy! Masters 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 27.336 | Which country will win the 2024 Eurovision song contest? | Multiple Choice |
| 27.009 | Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders? | Binary |
| 26.783 | How many additional highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 infections will be reported in humans in the United States in 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 26.553 | If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, will Nikki Haley endorse him before November 5th, 2024? | Binary |
| 25.604 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Other parties) | Continuous |
| 24.800 | Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024? | Binary |
| 24.194 | What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years? (End of 2024) | Continuous |
| 22.699 | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for the month of April 2024? | Continuous |
| 22.188 | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (4) | Binary |
| 21.595 | What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (November 15) | Continuous |
| 20.986 | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 19.633 | When will the Metaculus open source rewrite go live? | Continuous |
| 19.329 | If a government is formed in South Africa before July 1, 2024, which parties will form the government? | Multiple Choice |
| 18.078 | Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 17.898 | What will be the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on August 1, 2024? (Herds Affected) | Continuous |
| 17.048 | What will be the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on August 1, 2024? (States) | Continuous |
| 16.883 | What will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation be in the US in August 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 16.789 | Will Erik Ten Hag stop being Manchester United's manager before 2025? | Binary |
| 15.724 | Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 15.623 | Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (1. No agreements prohibiting safety criticism) | Binary |
| 15.439 | When will the third Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
| 15.257 | Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 15.072 | Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election? | Binary |
| 14.934 | Will the Pandemic Agreement be approved at the May 2024 World Health Assembly? | Binary |
| 14.913 | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Donald Trump, October 1 2024) | Continuous |
| 14.208 | Who will win the 2024 World Chess Championship? | Multiple Choice |
| 13.838 | Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case? | Binary |
| 13.682 | Who will become President of Iran in the first round of voting? | Multiple Choice |
| 11.314 | Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024? | Binary |
| 9.959 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Libertés, Indépendants, OutreMer, Territoires) | Continuous |
| 9.171 | Biden announces drop-out before July 15 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 8.869 | Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial? | Binary |
| 8.351 | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (3) | Binary |
| 7.822 | How much will it rain in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024? | Continuous |
| 7.771 | Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason? | Binary |
| 7.273 | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Moldova? | Multiple Choice |
| 6.729 | Will France have a new Prime Minister before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 6.700 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 South African general election? (ActionSA) | Continuous |
| 6.549 | How Many States Will Split the Senate-Presidential Ticket in the 2024 US Election? | Multiple Choice |
| 6.160 | Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025? | Binary |
| 5.857 | When will monthly global land-surface temperatures fall below record highs? | Multiple Choice |
| 5.534 | Between June 1 and June 15, 2024, what will be the strongest geomagnetic storm observed on Earth? | Multiple Choice |
| 4.970 | Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024? | Binary |
| 4.239 | 2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee? (Joe Biden) (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 3.777 | Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 3.603 | [Short Fuse] Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 3.511 | Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election? | Binary |
| 3.234 | Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 2.740 | Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3? | Binary |
| 2.556 | Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity? | Binary |
| 2.460 | Will the Powerball jackpot be won before April 15, 2024? | Binary |
| 2.289 | Will a new or extended state of emergency be declared in Ecuador before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 1.765 | What will be the outcome of Boeing Starliner's launch planned for May 21, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 1.455 | When will the number of power outages in Texas fall below 7,500 customers? | Continuous |
| 1.131 | [Short Fuse] Will the proxy advisor Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) advise Tesla shareholders to vote against Elon Musk's $57 billion package OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk? | Binary |
| 0.723 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
| 0.085 | Will both Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin congratulate the winner of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election before December 1, 2024? | Binary |
| - | RFK Jr. to drop out by Oct 22? (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| -0.248 | Will France have a new Prime Minister before January 1, 2025? (Yes) → What will the closing price of CAC 40 be on December 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| -0.819 | Will Israel invade Lebanon before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| -1.648 | How many of these Cabinet ministers will fail to be re-elected to the House of Commons at the next UK election? | Continuous |
| -1.789 | What will be the best score on the GPQA benchmark before 2025? | Continuous |
| -2.612 | When will the sixth Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
| -2.722 | Will any more United Kingdom MPs be suspended from their party, resign, or change allegiance before 2025? | Binary |
| -3.157 | Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| -3.548 | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)? | Binary |
| -3.731 | Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| -5.791 | Will leading Democratic lawmakers publicly call for Joe Biden to end his candidacy for the Democratic nomination before August 7, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| -6.789 | Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024? | Binary |
| -9.094 | Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined? | Binary |
| -10.072 | Which country will win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship? | Multiple Choice |
| -10.542 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Démocrates (Modem and independents)) | Continuous |
| -12.070 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Horizons) | Continuous |
| -12.164 | What vote percentage will Sadiq Khan win in the 2024 London mayoral election? | Continuous |
| -13.669 | Will Allan Lichtman’s September 2024 prediction of the electoral college winner for the 2024 US Presidential Election be correct? | Binary |
| -14.975 | Which party coalition will form the state government following the 2024 Saxony state election? | Multiple Choice |
| -16.901 | How many executive orders will Joe Biden sign after Election Day and before January 1, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
| -17.068 | Will Kamala Harris say "artificial intelligence" or "AI" in her 2024 Democratic National Convention keynote speech? | Binary |
| -18.620 | Who Will Win the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? | Multiple Choice |
| -19.717 | What will Reddit Inc.'s market capitalization be after its first day of trading, in USD? | Continuous |
| -20.439 | By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting? | Multiple Choice |
| -24.509 | On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's? | Binary |
| -27.042 | Four days after the first Donald Trump-Kamala Harris debate, how much will Harris's probability of winning change, according to the Metaculus Community? | Continuous |
| -27.865 | Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024? | Binary |
| -29.579 | What will be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year? | Multiple Choice |
| -30.091 | Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024? | Binary |
| -32.614 | How many major hurricanes will occur in 2024 Atlantic hurricane season? | Multiple Choice |
| -34.035 | 2024 US Election Winner to Win Popular Vote? (Yes) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| -35.461 | Will any discharge petition of the 118th Congress receive 218 signatures? | Binary |
| -36.890 | Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024? | Binary |
| -38.835 | Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -39.888 | Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| -42.524 | Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| -43.423 | What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024? | Continuous |
| -46.190 | Which manufacturer's vehicle will return astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore to Earth from the ISS? | Multiple Choice |
| -52.213 | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024? | Continuous |
| -54.186 | How disproportional will the 2024 Indian election be? | Continuous |
| -55.654 | Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024? | Binary |
| -57.677 | Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025? | Binary |
| -61.999 | Will Masoud Pezeshkian win the 2024 Iranian Presidential election? | Binary |
| -66.286 | Will the International Seabed Authority Secretary-General Michael Lodge be re-elected for a third term in the July elections? | Binary |
| -76.055 | Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -77.726 | Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event? | Binary |
| -85.903 | Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award? | Binary |
| -96.996 | Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024? | Binary |
| -103.998 | What will China's youth unemployment rate be for August 2024? | Continuous |
| -120.691 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Rassemblement National) | Continuous |
| -120.766 | How many deliveries will Rivian report in the second quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
| -125.593 | AI Wins Coding Competition in 2024? (No) → Frontier Open-Source AI? (2025) | Binary |
| -148.221 | Will the Columbia University Senate vote to censure university president Nemat Shafik on or before April 26, 2024? | Binary |
| -173.809 | Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024? | Binary |
| -228.922 | Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out? | Binary |